Monday, November 03, 2008


Again, a slight tilt back toward Obama (we're alternating every day). Virginia has slipped slightly into Obama likely, and Montana is now a toss-up.

Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.

McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 129 EV.

McCain likely: Georgia, Arizona. Total: 25 EV.

Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada, Virginia. Total: 38 EV.

Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado. Total: 273 EV.

Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, North Dakota, Montana. Total: 70 EV.

McCain is at 157 in his two piles, Obama is still at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (MT, ND, IN, and MO for McCain, NC and FL for Obama), they're at 185 and 353. Missouri might be edging towards McCain (although I still think they'll come through).

It's almost here. Be confident, be vigilant, and vote.

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