Sunday, November 02, 2008

The day after tomorrow

A little more movement today, with a slight trend within groupings towards McCain today (of the 18 states within 10 points, using 538, 2 trended towards Obama since yesterday, 14 towards McCain, and 2 had no change, with an average change of 0.4 towards McCain). We're still playing in statistical noise here, folks. Even with that, the only state that changed categories was...North Dakota, moving from McCain likely to tossup.

Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.

McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 132 EV (-10 since yesterday).

McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, Arizona. Total: 28 EV (-3).

Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).

Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).

Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, North Dakota. Total: 67 EV (+3).

McCain is at 160 in his two piles, Obama is still at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (ND, IN, and MO for McCain, NC and FL for Obama), they're at 185 and 353. Missouri might be edging towards McCain (although I still think they'll come through), but that's still a blowout.

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