Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Five weeks left

This last week has been excellent for Obama in the polls, and bad for McCain in the universe.

Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.

McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, Georgia, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana. Total: 158 EV (+3).

McCain likely: West Virginia. Total: 5 EV (-24).

Obama likely: Colorado, Minnesota. Total: 10 EV (-18).

Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Total: 250 EV (+48).

Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida, Indiana. Total: 106 EV (-36).

The net trend since last week is McCain lost 21 EV (54 over the last 2 weeks) from his column, while Obama gained 47 (52 over the last 2 weeks). Combining the "win" and "likely" for each, we'd be at 163 for McCain and 269 for Obama. That puts Obama 1 EV/state away from victory. PA and MI are still critical, but the trend was heavily in Obama's direction this week. If you include all states that are leaning one way or the other, you'd put MO, NC, and IN in McCain's column and NV, OH, FL, NH, and VA in Obama's. That would give you totals of 338 for Obama and 200 for McCain.


Carlos said...

In this election year there's no logical reason Obama shouldn't win in a landslide. Except for one: his skin color. Columnist John Herbert of the NYT fears we'll see another Bradley or Wilder "effect" in this election. Both were African-American candidates for governor in their respective states. Both held comfortable leads in the polls going into the election. Tom Bradley lost his California race, and Doug Wilder won by a whisker in Virginia.
It's a complicated picture. I still believe Palin will shave one or two points from McCain's vote, which hands Obama the election. Some analysts believe that the Bradley-Wilder effect shaves between 2% and 5% from Obama's lead in the polls and in blue collar battleground states like PA, MI, and OH.

I'm Not Ned said...

Yes, but your also forgetting the incredibly stupid vote.