Say it like you mean it

I'm going to step out on a limb here and try to get specific about predicting the election. I'll update this a couple more times before the election, just so that everyone can see how wrong I am. I predict...

In the Senate, there are 9 seats in play:

New Jersey (D incumbent)
Minnesota (R)
Rhode Island (R)
Montana (R)
Ohio (R)
Tennessee (R)
Missouri (R)
Pennsylvania (R)
Virginia (R)

The Democrats will win PA, MN, MT, and OH pretty easily. Santorum has killed his career, Tester is the poster boy for what a real grass roots campaign can do, DeWine is being sunk by the ungodly corrupt Ohio GOP (their outgoing governor, Taft, has a 12% approval rating), and the lead in Minnesota is huge. Rhode Island is also a likely pickup, where the Dem voters will choose the real Democrat over the faux-Democrat Chaffee. I predict we'll hold on to NJ - as screwed up as that state is, the unions will bring in the votes at the end. That would give a gain of 5 seats, making it 50-50, which still means the loss of every tie. So then the Dems need one of VA, MO, or TN. Those are all tough pickups. The racists in southern VA are keeping Allen in the lead, but it's tight. The polls on Ford/Corker in TN are back and forth, and I think MO is too close to call - I'm thinking they're likely to go to a recount.

The wildcard is CT, where Lieberman is making noises about defecting if he wins, and caucusing with the GOP. I'm going to predict that it ends up 50-50, with the Dems snagging one of VA, MO, or TN, but losing CT when Lieberman goes Republican.

As for the House, I'm going for a tidal wave here. Remember, in 2004, if we ignore Texas (oh, how I wish we could), the other 49 states gave the Dems a gain of 1 seat, but the gerrymandering in TX gave them five in that state alone, so they got a net gain. Too many House members are doing stupid things (there's new stories every day - check out TPM Muckraker for details). The Dems need 15 seats to get a 1 seat majority. I'm going to predict a 30-35 seat gain, for a 31-41 seat majority. The people are pissed off. Even if George Bush shoots bin Laden on National TV, while finding 200 million barrels of oil, the Dems will still take the House back, although the majority would be smaller.