Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Three weeks out

This last week has been excellent for Obama in the polls, and bad for McCain in the universe.

Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.

McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, Georgia, South Dakota. Total: 152 EV (-3).

McCain likely: Montana. Total: 3 EV (-5).

Obama likely: Colorado, Florida, Virginia. Total: 49 EV (+13).

Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire. Total: 264 EV (-13).

Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota. Total: 70 EV (+8).

Very little movement this week. McCain lost North Dakota (from the win) and West Virginia (from the likely) to the tossup column (3 EV), while Obama didn't lose any (Virginia went from win to likely). Combining the "win" and "likely" for each, we'd be at 155 for McCain and 313 for Obama.

If you include all states that are leaning one way or the other, you'd put IN, WV, and ND in McCain's column (and barely) and MO, OH, NC, and NV in Obama's. That would give you totals of 364 for Obama and 174 for McCain, same as last week. Stability helps Obama.

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