Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Four Weeks Left

This last week has been excellent for Obama in the polls, and bad for McCain in the universe.

Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.

McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, Georgia, South Dakota, North Dakota. Total: 155 EV (-3).

McCain likely: West Virginia, Montana. Total: 8 EV (+3).

Obama likely: Colorado, Florida. Total: 36 EV (+26).

Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire. Total: 277 EV (+27).

Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Indiana. Total: 62 EV (-44).

The net trend since last week is McCain didn't gain or lose any EV (Montana went from "win" to "likely") from his column, while Obama gained 53 (105 over the last 2 weeks). Combining the "win" and "likely" for each, we'd be at 163 for McCain and 313 for Obama. For the first time, Obama currently stands over the threshhold for victory. In fact, if Obama only won the "win" states at this point, he'd get 277 EV and win. PA and MI are still critical, but we know that McCain has given up on MI (although Caribou Barbie hasn't), which puts Pennsylvania directly in the crosshairs for the McCain campaign.

If you include all states that are leaning one way or the other, you'd only put IN in McCain's column (and barely) and MO, OH, NC, and NH in Obama's. That would give you totals of 364 for Obama and 174 for McCain.


Wendy said...

Every time I read your update on the polls, I keep hoping that Texas will move from the 'win' category to at least 'likely'. It feels like there are so many people here speaking up that they will vote for Obama. The democratic primaries were full of people coming out to vote - I'd never seen anything like it at my precinct. I just worry that it still won't be enough on election day to turn the tide here in this state.

drmagoo said...

1) Whoo hoo! Someone reads these!

2) If Texas came over, we'd have darned near a reversal of the 1984 map, which would make me just swoon with joy. However, while Obama doesn't stand a huge chance of taking Texas, that excitement could lead to the taking of more seats in the House and Senate. The odds of getting 60 seats in the Senate keeps going up, which means that Obama might actually get to enact the agenda he's talking about.