Alan Colmes to Depart Show with Hannity

Alan Colmes is reportedly set to leave the Fox News freakshow known as "Hannity & Colmes." We'll miss Alan, pictured below:

Don't read this if you just ate

The musical stylings of Jeffrey Scott Shapiro in the paper formerly known as the Wall Street Journal:

Earlier this year, 12,000 people in San Francisco signed a petition in support
of a proposition on a local ballot to rename an Oceanside sewage plant after
George W. Bush. The proposition is only one example of the classless
disrespect many Americans have shown the president...

This is the price Mr. Bush is paying for trying to work with both Democrats
and Republicans. During his 2004 victory speech, the president reached out to
voters who supported his opponent, John Kerry, and said, "Today, I want to
speak to every person who voted for my opponent. To make this nation stronger
and better, I will need your support, and I will work to earn it. I will do
all I can do to deserve your trust...."

Those bipartisan efforts have been met with crushing resistance from both
political parties.

The treatment President Bush has received from this country is nothing less
than a disgrace. The attacks launched against him have been cruel and
slanderous, proving to the world what little character and resolve we have.
The president is not to blame for all these problems. He never lost faith in
America or her people, and has tried his hardest to continue leading our
nation during a very difficult time.

Our failure to stand by the one person who continued to stand by us has not
gone unnoticed by our enemies. It has shown to the world how disloyal we can
be when our president needed loyalty--a shameful display of arrogance and
weakness that will haunt this nation long after Mr. Bush has left the White
House.

I think that one stands on its own. There really is no need for me to point out the painfully obvious.

No insurance? That's a Killer

In the October issue of Archives of Surgery, a study done by a John Hopkins trauma surgeon found that overall, uninsured patients were 50% more likely to die from their injuries than insured patients.

I find that to be an alarming statistic. So, now if you don't have insurance you #1) have to pay more if you go to the ER (because you don't get the I HAVE INSURANCE DISCOUNT) and #2) if you're a minority or don't have insurance at all, you possibly were pushed to the back of the emergency treatment line, or worse you received biased treatment that affected your overall health. So now you're not only dead, you have a hefty bill too.

I thought emergency care was the great equalizer in our health care system. According to this study, apparently not.

We need health care reform, and soon. I hope having Senator Tom Daschle as our new Secretary of Health and Human Services (I'm keeping my fingers crossed) is a step in the right direction towards health care accessibility for all in the coming years.

Three in a row?

The only incoming presidents to ever have to lead a nation in such peril were Lincoln and FDR. Luckily those were our two greatest occupants of the White House. We can only hope that history goes three for three this time.

A little noted anniversary

We used to hear about it every year, and then on the "special" anniversaries, but today has passed with little mention.

One of my first memories, though, is when our principal came into my first grade classroom and told us that President Kennedy had been killed.

John, we hardly knew ye.

Can we kiss the wild places of America goodbye?

First the BLM opened up land to the highest bidder for natural gas drilling that is within site of Arches National Park, Canyonlands National Park, and Dinosaur National Monument in Utah.

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Next it was the ultra-dirty and water-hog oil shale drilling leases being considered for sale in the arid states of Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado.

-

Now Secretary of Interior Kempthorne is proposing opening up land that borders Yellowstone National Park for geothermal energy exploration.
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Does the Bush Administration hold nothing sacred? Why is the West always the poster child for life-altering, term-ending legislation for outgoing president's that obviously don't give a damn?

Before you know it, my favorite camping spots are going to be turned into parking lots.

When will this ever end?

The end of January can not come fast enough.

Buy War Bonds Blondes

Sight seen:

While running lunchtime errands a grotesquely tricked Escalade pulled up next to me. The driver, a Cindy McCain vintage bleach blonde Botox nightmare in a ridiculous fur.

On the back of the car? A weathered "Support the Troops" ribbon.

Good to see you sacrificing for the cause, hon.

Let's put a stake through the heart of THIS monster

One result from the resounding electoral rejection of the neocon philosophy on election night should be to finally put to rest one of the great and most tragic myths of American politics--supply side economics. It just doesn't work, pure and simple. The only thing that "trickles down" is misery.

Three GOP presidents were great tax cutters, Hoover, Reagan and Bush the Failure. Each tax cutting splurge brought economic disaster. A tiny bubble initially, and then the INEVITABLE crash.

It is a failed philosophy that must forever be rejected.

Time to "corner" someone

We happily bring back one of our favorite features, and this week's winner is ever so richly deserving.

J.L. Stern of Highland Park, Illinois, gives us this gem:

Isn't it curious that when gas prices were rising every week, so many were quick to blame President Bush? Yet today, with the price dropping rapidly, you don't hear a word of praise. Is Bush really the cause of all our nation's ills, and have we learned anything from the gas price fluctuation?

Hmm, J.L., won't try and explain the complexities of the oil market to you, but at an ever so basic level, this is a commodity that trades on anticipated supply and demand. We now will have a president who won't wage mindless wars to torpedo the "supply" part of that equation, and in terms of "demand," well, a little thing known as Bush's Great Depression certainly tempers that.

Understand, J.L.?

Oh, and by the way...

Hamlet on the Hudson, Part Two

This isn’t the first time that New York’s most famous politician hemmed and hawed and prevaricated about making an important, and very public, decision, thus leaving those dependent in one way or the other on that decision in a kind of limbo.

In 1992 New York governor Mario Cuomo … waited … and waited … and waited … to announce whether or not he would run for president, so long that he was dubbed “Hamlet on the Hudson.” At the very last instant, as an airplane idled on the tarmac ready to fly him to New Hampshire, Cuomo decided not to run.

Bill Clinton, for whom Cuomo was the main stumbling block to his presidential ambitions, made the comically self-serving statement that he was “moved” by the governor’s announcement. I’ll say (trans: relieved). Ironically, we now have a Clinton, Hillary (Bill too!), vying for “Hamlet on the Hudson” honors, as she engages in a tantalizing media dance, much to the Obama transition team’s consternation:

Will She or Won’t She (accept State, already)?

To Be or Not to Be (Secretary of State)?

Will He or Won’t He (disclose his financial records)?

President-elect Obama must be quite disingenuous if he honestly believed this process wouldn’t turn into the soap opera it’s become. It’s not as if he hasn’t been exposed to the Clintons’ machinations during the course of this long campaign.

And isn’t the Obama camp just a bit disingenuous to be complaining about leaks? Hell, Hillary and Bill may not have leaked that Hillary was “agonizing” over the decision, but this hasn’t stopped their acolytes from leaking.

Realistically, the delay probably has more to do with Bill and his foreign “affairs” than with Hillary. At the same time, the leak of Hillary’s Hamlet act – whether or not it’s true – has placed Obama in a difficult position.

At this point, Obama may need to give Hillary (and Bill) a weekend ultimatum, anticipating an announcement early next week, or cut her loose and cut his losses.

So much for “no Drama Obama”?

Some random thoughts

Since I was once again denied the title of "Sexiest Man Alive" by People magazine, I suppose I will have to continue scribbling for a living.

I'm wondering how Bush's pardon parade will shape up. It will be a long line, with Rove, Libby, Miers, Gonzalez, Uncle Ted from Alaska, etc. I've brought this up before but for some reason I don't see any human compassion within the man. In addition, offering pardons would be a tacit (or explicit) admission that the perplexedly legacy-obsessed preznit consorted with criminals. I think the first prevails though. He just doesn't give a damn.

SO if your industry employs people in suits, have a few hundred billion! If you employ union workers, screw you.

I REALLY like the team that the president-elect is assembling. Nice work. Memo to Clinton, Bill: You owe your wife one. Do whatever it takes to make this work for her.

I guess the only good to come out of that sad scenario is that Barack Obama owns as much of Joe Lieberman as he could want.

The hysteria out of the right is so pathetic. Sean Hannity bleating about ACORN and how McCain one WAAAY more COUNTIES than Obama (pssst Sean..no one LIVES those "counties!") It is fun to see them try and cope when their entire political philosophy and world view was so thoroughly repudiated and rejected by the voters.

That glee, though, is sadly tempered by the fact that their disastrous policies have once again brought us to the brink of the abyss.

Division III football

A few posts below, Pete once again shows his enthusiasms for his alma mater's football program. I feel like I have to chime in here, noting that my alma mater went undefeated in the regular season and is currently ranked 2nd in the country in DIII. The mighty North Central College Cardinals are seeded first in their bracket (OH NO! A college football playoff? Doesn't that violate some law of nature or something? At least that's what the twits in the BCS tell me!) and will be hosting games for the first 3 rounds (it's a field of 64), if they keep advancing. It's a far cry from the suckitude they displayed when I was there, when they had four offensive plays - run right, run left, run up the middle, and throw an incomplete pass.

Missouri for McCain

Well, they've finally called Missouri for John McCain, with a win of around 3600 votes. Somehow, I don't think anyone will be pushing for a recount. That puts the final totals at 365 for Obama and 173 for McCain. In the predictions I posted here a few weeks ago, I had guessed 364-174. I missed on Missouri and Indiana (they switched) and Nebraska's 2nd district (the first time ever they've split like that). It helped that I was using the right resources to put my guesses together (especially fivethirtyeight.com), but that still feels good.

So what does it take to get kicked out of the caucus?

Apparently actively campaigning for the GOP doesn't do it, nor does badmouthing the Democratic standard-bearer. What does he have to do? Give Harry Reid a joybuzzer handshake? Spike the Senate navy bean soup? I guess we're just stuck with Joe Lieberman, pictured below.

The lawyer in me

John Paul Stevens wants to live for another two months (hat tip to the Wildcats here!) and Ginsburg isn't healthy.

Yes, the Supreme Court gets all the press, but it is in the circuit courts where the heavy lifting is done legally. Bush has stacked the 11 appeals circuits with YOUNG ideologues with LIFETIME appointments.

Here's to an Obama presidency and returning sanity to the federal bench.

Stupid, stupid, stupid

SEC Files Insider Trading Charges Against Mark Cuban

Washington, D.C., Nov. 17, 2008 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Dallas entrepreneur Mark Cuban with insider trading for selling 600,000 shares of the stock of an Internet search engine company on the basis of material, non-public information concerning an impending stock offering.

Now of course these are just charges, nothing proven yet, but from my experience the SEC is really good in these cases. Mark, you just tossed away your chance to fulfill your dream of buying the Cubs. This is MLB's excuse for keeping you out of their little club.

What is it with the uber-rich? He avoided a loss of about $750,000 (allegedly) on the deal. That's chump change for someone like Cuban. Ditto Martha Stewart a while back. Perhaps it's that Type A win at all costs personality?

Dumb. Really dumb.

Idle cabinet musings ...

Okay, so I've succumbed to the pundits' parlor games re: Obama's cabinet appointments.

Peter, I'll eat my hat if Larry Summers gets Treasury. As you said, not only has Summers dated Laura Ingraham, a woman of no substance (which goes to his judgment), but he's made a lot of enemies with women of substance (which also goes to his judgment). I just can't see a President Obama tolerating this guy's intemperate mouth distracting from the gargantuan economic crisis the country faces.

Besides, Joe Biden already straddles the big mouth territory in Obama's nascent cabinet.

My hunch is New Jersey governor John Corzine owns the inside track on Treasury. Not only does he have financial services credentials (I know, Paulson was head of Goldman Sachs too), but he brings the added dimension of public service, in the Senate and as governor. He's highly respected as someone who can work across both sectors, with unions and management, and who cares for and understands the plight of the middle class and the underclass. He's the perfect candidate if Obama wants to stress the problems of "Main Street" vs. Wall Street. Tim Geithner, a Summers protege, is a good candidate for undersecretary. And to round off Obama's economic team, grey eminence Paul Volcker is a solid and logical choice to chair the President's Council of Economic Advisors.

State is Hillary's if she wants it. The problem is vetting Bill's foreign financial contributors to his foundation, and possible conflicts of interest.

Robert Gates would be an astute choice to remain at Defense as a Republican holdover to preside over Obama's gradual drawdown of troops from Iraq. Former Georgia senator Sam Nunn is also a possibility for the post.

Here's to you, Old DePauw!

DePauw retained the Monon Bell for another season, rolling over No. 3 Wabash 36-14 after picking off Matt Hudson four times.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

I assume you've heard the rumors, of Sen. Clinton headed to Foggy Bottom.

I'm OK with that.

And who would REALLY like to see the junior senator from New York gone on LENGTHY foreign missions?

Well, hello, Newman

This one is special.

A South Carolina Roman Catholic priest has told his parishioners that they should refrain from receiving Holy Communion if they voted for Barack Obama because the Democratic president-elect supports abortion, and supporting him "constitutes material cooperation with intrinsic evil."

The Rev. Jay Scott Newman said in a letter distributed Sunday to parishioners at St. Mary's Catholic Church in Greenville that they are putting their souls at risk if they take Holy Communion before doing penance for their vote. "Our nation has chosen for its chief executive the most radical pro-abortion politician ever to serve in the United States Senate or to run for president," Newman wrote, referring to Obama by his full name, including his middle name of Hussein.

Where to begin...First of all, Obama does not "support" abortion and he is not "pro-abortion." He wants the government out of the question so that personal decisions may be made personally. And from the way you singled out Obama I'm guessing you're OK with endless, unprovoked wars, torture and indefinite imprisonment without charges?

And beyond you, Rev. Newman, shall we look at your organization? I have no quarrel with the faithful who find comfort and solace in the ancient liturgy and the sacraments. But just for a second, let's recall the "WWJD" bracelets. What would a rabbi who spoke of self-sacrifice and sharing think of Vatican City, perhaps the largest art hoarder and landowner in the world? What you he think of an institution that initially ignores and then protects sexual predators preying rather than praying, on the most vulnerable?

And you, Rev. Newman, dare criticize your congregants merely for voting for a man of peace and good will?

I can't do this but I know someone who can--

Damn you.

Obama Resigns His Senate Seat - Now What?

There is pretty much universal agreement that Rod Blagojevich has been a train wreck as governor of Illinois. Six years ago, he sold himself to his constituents as a progressive, a reformer and a "doer." When his agenda got bogged down in some partisan bickering, he STILL won re-election, although many of us who voted for him, did so while holding our collective noses. And it turned out that we should have trusted our noses. He has proven to be a magnet for corruption, and despite a legislature literally brimming with fellow democrats, he has been a total failure at getting anything substantive done with regards to ongoing budgetary timebombs. He is universally despised. However, he IS the sitting governor of the home state of the president-elect. Said p/e has filed his resignation paperwork with the appropriate senatorial office, and so Illinois will be light one senator come Sunday.

So what will our beloved Blago do? Let's dispatch with one possibility right away: He will NOT name himself to fill the remainder of Obama's term - and believe me I am sure that it has crossed his mind. There isn't much question that going to Washington would allow him to be extricated from the quagmire he's created in state government. It must be equally obvious that he would have to face a group of cannibals in a 2010 democratic primary fight. That said, he could NEVER get re-elected, and should he get indicted while a sitting senator (a real possibility given an ongoing federal corruption investigation), he'd turn himself into a national joke along the lines of Ted Stevens.

Nope, Blago needs to go to the bench and name someone else. In my mind there are three groups of contenders, those who would be there to keep the seat warm for two years, those who really want the job, and those who I think might be rolling around in Blago's mind. Here are those I see as being on those short lists:

Seat Warmers
Emil Jones - President of the Illinois Senate. Pros: At 73 years old, he would have no designs on staying on past 2010. As an African American, he would "fill" the Af-Am slot that so many pundits think is SOOOOO important. Oh, and was Barack Obama's political mentor.
Cons: He has a heart condition, and while he is a grizzled veteran legislator, he has absolutely NO national experience.
Jesse White - Illinois Secretary of State. Pros: Another aging Af-Am politician, who would have no designs on holding the seat past 2010. He is undeniably popular statewide. He is acknowledged as a stand-up guy. Cons: None, except for the lack of any substantive legislative experience and the fact that he has publicly stated that he has no interest in the job.

Wanna Bes
Tammy Duckworth - Director of Illinois Department of Veteran's Affairs. Pros - Amazing backstory - multiple amputee veteran of the Iraq Debacle. Gained scads of positive national exposure during her unlikely (and nearly successful) run at Henry Hyde's vacated congressional seat in 2006 (she lost by fewer than 2% in a + GOP district). Cons - She has very little governmental experience, and she hasn't ever won so much as a local elected office. She would be in for a well-funded challenge by the GOP in 2010.

Jesse Jackson Jr. - Sitting Congressman. Pros - A veteran national legislator who would hit the ground running. He knows politics, Dick Durbin could be a huge help to get him onto high profile committees - Normally, I'd say that being an African American would be a "pro" but he carries his father's name, and while his positives in the minority community and the south suburbs are very very high (he is a main proponent of the moribund effort to bring an international airport to Peotone's cornfields) the negatives attached TO HIS FATHER in the mostly white suburbs and downstate would assure a credible GOP challenge in 2010. I really don't like his chances to win a statewide election. His future may be as a challenger to "Da Mayor."

Dan Seals - Two-time (2006, 2008) loser to Mark Kirk in IL-10. Pros - He is Af-Am, and his agenda matches Obama's. Cons - He has ZERO name recognition outside of the Chicago metro area and hasn't ever won an election. While he has run well in a +GOP congressional district, that district is far more socially liberal than downstate. This makes a credible GOP run at him in 2010 a certainty.

Luis Gutierrez - Sitting Congressman (IL-4). Pros - Another veteran legislator who knows his way around Washington. As the only Hispanic in the conversation, he might be a formidible opponent for anyone the GOP throws at him in 2010. Cons - He is all-but-unknown downstate, and he hasn't exactly been much more than a reliable vote in the US Congress, despite having served there for multiple terms. His history as a fire-brand liberal might cause the GOP to see him as vulnerable to a challenge from a strong moderate candidate.

Jan Schakowsky - Sitting Congresswoman (IL-9). Pros - Steady, progressive and (like Jackson and Gutierrez) a veteran presence on Capitol Hill. She can draw on her close relationship with Dick Durbin to get on some plumb committees. She'd be tough for the GOP to attack in 2010. Cons - Another Chicago area politician with little-to-no name recognition outside the Chicago TV market.

Dark, Dark Horses
Bill Foster - Sitting Congressman (IL-14). Pros - Beat a well-funded GOP candidate TWICE in less than a year in a +GOP district. Seen by voters in his district as a moderate with a brilliant mind (FermiLab scientist), and a business background. Received the endorsement of the conservative Chicago Tribune. Cons - Would probably cause the democrats to lose a house seat in a special election for the IL 14 seat. Hard to say if he could generate lots of heat in 2010.

Lisa Madigan - Illinois Attorney General. Pros - She has high positives statewide, and if she went into 2010 as a sitting senator I see no credible GOP presence in the state to oppose her. Her father has the testes of an entire house of the state legislature in a jar by the door of his office. They would make sure to deliver her a decisive victory. Cons - If she is a sitting US Senator, then she probably won't run for governor in 2010 -and this is almost a sure thing if she isn't tabbed for this gig.

My money is on Madigan, especially if Blago has deluded himself into believing that he's still viable to run for re-election in 2010.

Which "ist" are you?

Are you a good witch or a bad witch? No, wrong question.

Apparently the Obama camp and the periphery are dividing into "transformationalists," who want to take an electoral mandate for a spin and the "incrementalists" who take a cautious Clinton-like view to proceeding.

Are you a good witch or a bad witch?

Roberto Martell, please find a life

After a banishment of nearly two years, Chief Illiniwek once again is putting on the buckskins, beads and turkey feathers...a student group paid $4,500 to rent Assembly Hall on campus, where Chief Illiniwek will perform his traditional dance—free for students, $5 for the public. Roberto Martell (an inside joke for the Love Boat crew!), president of Students for Chief Illiniwek, said the group encountered no resistance from the administration. Tom Hardy, a university spokesman, said the students will be allowed to hold the event and that it is not sponsored by the university.

"Chief Illiniwek is a big priority," said Martell, a 20-year-old junior. "It inspired me to be a complete man." Link

Many of you that know that I'm a huge Illini fan and I hated to see the chief gone. But the operative word is "GONE." LET IT GO.

Chief Illiniwek made games more exciting for me (let's face it, there have been a lot of lean years in Illinois football!). However, Roberto, if the chief inspired you to be a complete man, you need to re-examine your priorities.

Why Larry Summers cannot have a Cabinet post

Yes, we know he's generally a tool.

Yes, he said in rough paraphrase that girls can't do math (tell that to my math major wife)

BUT the ultimate disqualifier:

He dated winger hate harpy Laura Ingraham.

Case closed.

A piece of "original intent" to neutralize the mouthbreathers

Over the last several months, as the probability of Obama's election became greater, the right-wing screech machine started to look for ANY kind of dirt to use to derail his chances. My favorite though is this one, and it hasn't gone away - even as the countdown to the inauguration commences: Obama is NOT a natural-born citizen of the United States, and therefore is not constitutionally qualified to run for (or win) the presidency. They say that his Hawaiian birth certificate is forged or falsified or written in secret Islamic code, or made of rice paper, or something.... As absurd as this idea is, let's indulge the mouthbreathers for a moment and allow that Obama was born in some exotic foreign location (say, Indonesia or Kenya, or even Georgia). As long as there isn't any question that he was born the son of Ann Dunham, then Barack IS a natural born citizen, regardless of where the birth took place. The reason is simple: his mother was a citizen of the USA, and therefore he was entitled to USA citizenship AT BIRTH. The first US Congress made this clear in the Naturalization Act of 1790:

"And the children of citizens of the United States that may be born beyond the sea, or out of the limits of the United States, shall be considered as natural born citizens."

Now, while it can be argued TODAY that the act could be interpreted to mean that BOTH parents needed to be USA citizens in order for the child to be "natural born" - there is absolutely no problem in looking deep in history to find that the MOTHER is key (you COULD prove who a mother was in 1790... not so easy to prove paternity back then). So clearly the original intent of the framers would be to say that any child of a WOMAN citizen is a natural born citizen regardless of WHERE the child was born...

What is the point of "code names" for the first family ---

if you tell everyone what they are?

http://buzz.yahoo.com/buzzlog/92024/?fp=1

More unpopular than Nixon

CNN's latest "approval" poll for W includes an approval number so small they don't even bother to list it.

Seventy-six percent of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Monday disapprove of how President Bush is handling his job.

That's an all-time high in CNN polling and in Gallup polling dating back to World War II.

"No other president's disapproval rating has gone higher than 70 percent. Bush has managed to do that three times so far this year," says CNN polling director Keating Holland. "That means that Bush is now more unpopular than Richard Nixon was when he resigned from office during Watergate with a 66 percent disapproval rating."

Before Bush, the record holder for presidential disapproval was Harry Truman, with a 67 percent disapproval rating in January of 1952, his last full year in office.

The only downside to a McCain defeat

If Grampy had won, I would have been spared the indignity of finally being older than the president.

I would love to be a fly on the wall for the Bush-Obama meeting

The differences between the two are so jarring. I would love to hear what was said between the most honorable and decent man to enter the White House in more than 30 years and one of the most disgusting to leave it--ever.

As long as we're doing photos

That's me and my better half with the next POTUS and a pretty damned good Senator.

And for Lula, I also exist...

With my MUCH better half!

(I'm the one on the right!)

November 4, 2008 @ 10:08 p.m. - Grant Park

Photographic evidence of my existence.... (I am the one on the left)

How did the rich vote?

In response to the post below about Adam Smith and his invisible hand of love, I noticed that Nate Silver's got a post up at fivethirtyeight containing some interesting breakdowns of exit polls. Those who reported an income of over $200,000 (basically those who will pay more under Obama's intended tax plan) voted for him 52-48. Apparently, those who make the money aren't as worried about paying a bit more in taxes as those who wish they made that much money.

A visit to the (Freeper) zoo

THIS is rich.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2127917/posts

Spread the wealth around, circa 1776

"The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. A tax upon house-rents, therefore, would in general fall heaviest upon the rich; and in this sort of inequality there would not, perhaps, be anything very unreasonable. It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion. "

From that wacky radical Adam Smith.

I'm almost feeling sorry for Sarah Palin..

Readers here know how I feel about Caribou Barbie, that she is a miserable, mean-spirited and corrupt person ill-equipped seemingly for any job she has held and certainly the one she most recently sought.

So why would I possibly feel sorry for her? Because I have never seen such callous and classless attacks on a running mate coming from within the camp of the head of the ticket.

OK, I admit that it is funny that she doesn't understand either North America or Africa, but memo to the "staffers" who are dumping on her. You are putting yourselves in a very untenable position. If it's true, I assume you are trying to scapegoat her for McCain's drubbing, but that only makes you and your boss look like mega-chumps for picking her. If it's not true (doubtful, but possible) you have committed actionable defamation.

The word that comes to mind is "schadenfreude."

A View from Abroad ... in Cartoons

Aislin, The Montreal Gazette



Novaes, Jornal do Brasil

In my mind I'm gone to Carolina

Obama blue or Tarheel blue? In any case, a blue Carolina is a beautiful thing!

Plus the Dems pick up the Oregon senate seat.

The teeny tiny brain of Sean Hannity

Here is the absurd "poll question" from the even more absurd Sean Hannity:

With ACORN fraud, military ballots missing, and people voting more than once do you believe that Obama would have won this election without all those situations?

Feel free to laugh uproariously.

A couple of reactions from African Americans

Whoopi Goldberg on “The View”:

And the realization that hit me and really messed me up for a lot of the night was that as an American, I always thought of myself as an American with all of the promise that America holds. But suddenly last night I felt like I could put my suitcase down finally.

And this from a voter in Washington:

Rosa sat so Martin could walk.

Martin walked so Obama could run.

And run he did. And (smiling broadly) win he did.

Wow.

Won't you please help?

Hundreds of political hacks and industry insiders will soon be out of work in an Obama administration. Mine owners will no longer be able to feed their families with their pay from the Mine Safety Board. Chemical company lobbyists will no longer serve on the EPA, and representatives of companies that make unsafe cribs and dangerous toys will lose their seats on the Consumer Products Safey Commission.

Please help these unfortunates and donate today. Save the scumbags, and give what you can today. Please.

Thank you.

November 4, 2008 @ 10:00 p.m. - Grant Park

Every Picture Tells a Story....

...don't it!!

Last night

I was listening to the radio this morning on the way to work, and "Tonight, tonight," by the Smashing Pumpkins came on. And it dovetailed perfectly with the scenes from last night that I don't ever want to forget. So I thought I'd share with you.

If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

Time is never time at all
You can never ever leave, without leaving a piece of youth
And our lives are forever changed
We will never be the same
The more you change the less you feel

It's the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.

It's been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.

Believe, believe in me, believe, believe!
That life can change, that you're not stuck in vain
We’re not the same, we're different.
Tonight, tonight, tonight
So bright
Tonight, tonight

As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, "We are not enemies, but friends...though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection." And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn - I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.

And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world - our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down - we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security - we support you. And to all those who have wondered if America's beacon still burns as bright - tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.

For that is the true genius of America - that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

And you know you're never sure
But you're sure you could be right
If you held yourself up to the light
And the embers never fade, in your city by the lake
The place where you were born

This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that's on my mind tonight is about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She's a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing - Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.

She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn't vote for two reasons - because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.

And tonight, I think about all that she's seen throughout her century in America - the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can't, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.

Believe, believe in me, believe, believe!
In the resolute urgency of now
And if you believe there's not a chance tonight
Tonight, tonight, tonight
So bright tonight, tonight!

At a time when women's voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.

When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs and a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.

When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.

She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that "We Shall Overcome." Yes we can.

A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.

We’ll crucify the insincere tonight (Tonight)
We’ll make things right, we'll feel it all tonight (Tonight)
We’ll find a way to offer up the night (Tonight)
The indescribable moments of your life (Tonight)
The impossible is possible tonight (Tonight)
Believe in me as I believe in you,
Tonight, tonight, tonight,
Tonight
Tonight…

America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves - if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?

This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time - to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth - that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people:

Yes We Can.

Faux News

Just for fun, I turned over to watch the mumbly Britt Hume on Fake News lament how Americans did not respond adequately to the William Ayers "crisis." Right. Only on Fake News is a balding paunchy (hey, I know of which I speak!) education professor a crisis.

Fair and Balanced. Right.

May I be the first to say to my GOP brethren

In the true spirit of your reaction in 2000 and 2004, I would just like to say, in the nicest possible way:

GET OVER IT!!!

We now return you to your your regularly scheduled program.

Response

To Peter's post about how President Obama (just typing that makes me smile) will govern:

I have so much confidence in that guy and his team right now that it's a little bit scary. He's not a divine being, and I don't worship him, but he is a hell of a politician, and that's a very good thing. After that campaign, executed at such a high level and utilizing media and technology and people in ways that no one had dreamt of before, do you have any doubts that he'll surround himself with the right people and lead that group, and the country, to better places?

Good day

With a few obvious and onerous exceptions (CA's prop 8, the senate seat in Alaska, etc), I'm just frickin' happy today. I get why there's so much anger and emotion, but I feel lighter today than I have in a very long time.

As I was watching the results come in last night, knowing that as soon as PA came in that it was inevitable (and especially after Ohio), the excitement began to build. And even though I knew it was coming, when MSNBC put the graphic on the screen at 10 pm, I started crying. There are many battles to fight and I'm far too much of an idealist to ever really be satisfied, but the moment was overwhelming. I thought about the energy I've spent on the outgoing President and his cohort - the anger, the resentment, the fear, the frustration, the nights I stayed awake ranting, the tens of thousands of words I spewed in vitriolic furies, the conversations in public, seemingly always rising to the level of annoying random passers-by, the bursts of anger toward everyone with a Bush-Cheney sticker on their car, the wingnut blogs I read in amazement, and I just couldn't hold it in.

It's over.

Not the war. There's always another war. But this was a big one.

We will face other challenges, but not from that group. On January 20, John McCain will not take the oath of office, bringing with him someone who has no business touring the White House much less potentially living there and keeping the entire Bush cadre close if not formally in office. The first blustery days of fall are always some of my favorites, as the north winds blow away the last remnants of the sticky, oppressive heat of summer, bringing an icy clarity to the air and a crispness to the land. I'm always invigorated on those days, as it just feels easier to do everything. This feels like that, only magnified immensely. After so many days that all felt the same on a fundamental level, where a malaise had settled over the country (and the world), today is a new day. And that's worth a whole lot.

Maybe this is what the conservatives felt like when Reagan came in, with his "morning in America." That wasn't a repudiation of Carter as much as it was of the last 15 years or so, and all of the crap that had come with Watergate and Vietnam and oil shortages and all that. I don't believe that the country has become as liberal as I'd like it, but there is widespread acknowledgment that we did need a change.

Maybe it's like Bill Murray finally waking up on February 3. It almost doesn't matter what today brings. It's enough that it's a new day.

Random Thoughts

It is 75 degrees and sunny in Chicago. God is in his heavens and all is right with the world.

Dr. King, you wished for a day when character rather than color would be the question. That day is here.

When people vote, Republicans lose.

How fucked up is Alaska? Caribou Barbie and Ted Stevens?

Kudos to the kids. The youth vote was HUGE.

Does the devil still have the claim check for John McCain's soul?

Liddy Dole. Buh bye! Good riddance.

I'm afraid the GOP will learn their lesson. Forget Mittens Romney. Forget Madame Moosehunter. The GOP will realize that anti-intellectualism is a loser, that Americans are sick of presidents "like them." The new face of the GOP is not the miserable and disgusting Sarah Palin. Ladies and gentlemen, may I present your 2012 GOP nominee--David Petraeus.

How will he govern?

First of all, I don't think he will advance a particularly aggressive legislative agenda. He has the huge problems of Bush's disastrous wars and an economy still in great danger to deal with. He also will have to begin slowly and work with the potential filibuster GOP bloc.

What he will do immediately are the things that a president can do. First of all, he will not shame us on the world stage as George Bush has done. He knows the difference between Shi'a and Sunni, understands the role of the United States in the world, and knows what we can and cannot do.

He will stop the grotesque politicization of the Justice Department and return the focus of the Justice Department to...justice.

He will end the shame of torture.

He will appoint thoughtful jurists to the bench rather than radical activists and political hacks.

He will appoint regulators who will regulate, rather than industry insiders who gut even minimal regulation for the sake of profit. Securities, occupational safety, consumer products safety, the environment--regulated by regulators.

His administration will honor those who served, both in terms of benefits and not wasting their lives for personal vainglory, as compared to the shame of the current crowd who gleefully piss on our troops.

THAT is a good start.

I wonder what Sarah thinks of community organizers NOW??

Given that organized communities crushed her ridiculous little campaign?

I doubt McCain would have prevailed without the Palin pick (he definitely does better in Pennsylvania with Tom Ridge) but she sealed the deal. When the Republicans lose Indiana and the Philadelphia suburbs, they need to take a long hard look in the mirror. They are on the verge of becoming a party embraced only by stupid white people. Unfortunately, we have a bumper crop of those in this country, but since the GOP disregarded my prescient advice (if you depend on yahoos to win, DO NOT put the yahoos on television!), they seem to be sufficiently marginalized for now if the Democrats can prove Will Rogers wrong and remain an organized political party.

Palin in 2012? Oh please, please, please.

Indiana, my Indiana, Indiana, we're all for you!

Who EVER would have thought that our neighbors to the east would turn blue??

Mr. Irrelevant

Who gets this title, normally reserved for the last player picked in the NFL draft?

Joe Lieberman..or

Joe the Plumber?

Obama Nation!

Calling it at 10

The 44th President of the United States of America...

Barack Obama

I may weep.

Boom!

Blowout city, bay-bee!

On My Way to Grant Park

I spent 10 hours poll watching for Dan Seals and Barack Obama in IL 10. The turnout in the 4 precincts I oversaw will approach 80% -- this is a GREAT sign for the good guys.

My wife and I will soon leave to be on our way to Grant Park and what promises to be a very joyous evening!!!

So what is Fox News talking about?

Need you ask? They will say ANYTHING to discredit what will happen today. Think they ran this header in 2000? In 2004?

My Polling Place Report

I arrived at 5:40 AM and the line was already 200 people deep. There was a palpable Obama buzz, which is great news for Dan Seals, IL-10th candidate.

It's finally here!

Everyone have a great election day, and an even better celebration afterward, watching the GOP whimper and moan like the defeated whiners they are!

Drinking game - one shot for every state Obama reclaims from the evil ones.

Off to a good start

Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the little hamlet that votes first in the nation and has gone Republican since 1972, posted an upset: Barack Obama 15, John McCain 6.

Also, the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Washington Redskins, and as tradition goes, when the Redskins lose the incumbent party loses too.

Let’s keep it going!

Not to put too fine a point on it

I want the world to last long enough for this guy to love it. Vote Obama.

Tomorrow

Again, a slight tilt back toward Obama (we're alternating every day). Virginia has slipped slightly into Obama likely, and Montana is now a toss-up.

Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.

McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 129 EV.

McCain likely: Georgia, Arizona. Total: 25 EV.

Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada, Virginia. Total: 38 EV.

Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado. Total: 273 EV.

Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, North Dakota, Montana. Total: 70 EV.

McCain is at 157 in his two piles, Obama is still at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (MT, ND, IN, and MO for McCain, NC and FL for Obama), they're at 185 and 353. Missouri might be edging towards McCain (although I still think they'll come through).

It's almost here. Be confident, be vigilant, and vote.

Heads Up: The Ohio Vote Can Still Be Hacked!

The same electronic tabulation system that could have hacked the Ohio vote tabulation in 2004 IS STILL IN PLACE for the 2008 election. As incredible as this may seem, electronically tabulated votes in Ohio are routed through a highly partisan Republican IT company in Chatanooga, TN, SmarTech Inc., before the “results” are displayed online.

According to IT experts, this unsafe schematic leaves the system open to a “KinPin” or “Man in the Middle (MIM)” attack from criminal hackers who can scramble the vote in any way at the SmarTech IT server. Read about it here.

SmaTech is the same server that hosted Karl Rove’s 500 “missing” emails.

It's UN.F*.BELIEVABLE that Ohio with a Democratic governor and Democratic secretary of state have NOT taken appropriate measures to close this HUGE security risk to counting ALL the votes from Ohio on Nov. 4 and holding an HONEST election.

Just one quick question...

Who in God's green earth is still UNDECIDED and what the hell is wrong with you???

Condolences again in our own poor little way

Sen. Obama's grandmother passed away today in Hawaii. Rest in peace, and bless you, senator, for seeing her before she died.

Baghdad Fred

On Huffington Post today, they list the predictions of a whole list of pundits, ranging from George Will to the folks from Politico.com and Republican strategists. To a man/woman, they all agree that Obama prevails with at least 300 electoral votes, Except for one, Weekly Standard dullard Fred Barnes. Somehow Fred says that Grampy will win with a stunning 286 electoral votes.

One might argue that poor Fred, pictured below, might need to get back in touch with reality??

Joe the Plumber Endorses McCain

Sen. McCain said that if elected, he will take Joe the Plumber, pictured below, to Washington with him. No announcement on Joe's role has been made.

The day after tomorrow

A little more movement today, with a slight trend within groupings towards McCain today (of the 18 states within 10 points, using 538, 2 trended towards Obama since yesterday, 14 towards McCain, and 2 had no change, with an average change of 0.4 towards McCain). We're still playing in statistical noise here, folks. Even with that, the only state that changed categories was...North Dakota, moving from McCain likely to tossup.

Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.

McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 132 EV (-10 since yesterday).

McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, Arizona. Total: 28 EV (-3).

Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).

Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).

Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, North Dakota. Total: 67 EV (+3).

McCain is at 160 in his two piles, Obama is still at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (ND, IN, and MO for McCain, NC and FL for Obama), they're at 185 and 353. Missouri might be edging towards McCain (although I still think they'll come through), but that's still a blowout.

Condolences from The Thinker

To one of the best Senators we've got right now, Illinois' own Dick Durbin. He's going to win an easy re-election Tuesday, but I'm sure that won't come close to making up for the loss of his daughter, Christine, at the age of 40 due to a congenital heart condition. I've seen Senator Durbin speak a couple of times, and written him a bunch, and his passion about issues that really matter is clearly evident in the things he does. I'm a new parent, and I can't imagine how hard that's got to be for him. I hope he and his family come through this and remember the best of the one they've lost.

Why hasn’t Sarah Palin released her medical records?

Sens. Obama, and McCain released their medical records back in May, before early voting took off across the nation. Joe Biden’s medical records were released more than two weeks ago.

Considering that John McCain, at 72, would be the oldest person in history to be president, has had two episodes of melanoma cancer, was a two-pack a day smoker for many years, and has suffered physically and psychologically as a POW, the disclosure of Sarah Palin’s medical records becomes all the more urgent.

WITH THREE DAYS TO GO BEFORE THE ELECTION, WHY HASN’T SARAH PALIN RELEASED HER MEDICAL RECORDS?

Two weeks ago, Palin gave NBC’s Brian Williams this evasive nonanswer:

"The medical records, so be it. If that will allow some curiosity seekers perhaps to have one more thing that they either check the box off that they can find something to criticize or to rest them assured over. I'm healthy, happy, I've had five kids, that's going to be in the medical records. Never seriously ill or hurt, you'll see that in the medical records if they're released."

Note the "if". Two weeks later, with three days to go, still no records.

What does Palin have to hide? If she’s “healthy” and “happy” and never “seriously ill or hurt,” why not release the records? And where’s the media scrutiny in all this?

Incidentally, being “happy” isn’t a medical condition, unless Palin has a history of depression, in which case it would be very relevant. In 1972, when it was disclosed that George McGovern’s vice presidential choice, Thomas Eagleton, had undergone electric shock therapy, he was forced out of the ticket even after McGovern said he was “1,000 percent” behind Eagleton.

It was this episode, and other later revealed facts about presidential candidates’ medical issues, which prompted a greater scrutiny and a bipartisan agreement to make such information public. Barracuda Barbie should not be held to a different standard. The public has a right to know. Especially this year, with a 72 year-old candidate whose health is a real concern.

And the number of the counting shall be three

A little movement today (disregard the noise from the outlying problematic Zogby poll), with a slight trend within groupings towards Obama today (of the 17 states within 10 points, using 538, 2 trended towards McCain since yesterday, 13 towards Obama, and 2 had no change, with an average change of 0.3 towards Obama). We're playing in statistical noise here, folks. The only state that changed categories was...Arizona, moving from McCain win to McCain likely.

Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.

McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 132 EV (-10 since yesterday).

McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, Arizona, North Dakota. Total: 31 EV (+10).

Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).

Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).

Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (+0).

McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN and MO for McCain, NC and FL for Obama), they're at 185 and 353. Missouri might be edging towards McCain (although I still think they'll come through), but that's still a blowout.

Rest in Peace, Studs

One of the great voices, silenced.

Oh, fer crying out loud

“If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations,” Palin told host Chris Plante, “then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.”

*head explodes*

h/t Balloon Juice, from ABC News

Prediction

At work, they've got a contest to see who can predict the results of the election, and the entries are due today.

Short and sweet: since the dynamics of the election haven't changed in weeks, I'm going to run with the stability that my analyses have predicted, for good or for ill.

Obama 364
McCain 174

Obama will take 51.8% of the popular vote, McCain 46.7%, and third-party candidates 1.5%.

Four! More! Days!

Not much movement in the polls, again, but a little, with a slight trend within groupings towards Obama today (of the 19 states within 10 points, using 538, 4 trended towards McCain since Monday, 12 towards Obama, and 3 had no change, with an average change of 0.2 towards Obama). We're playing in statistical noise here, folks. No states changed categories.

Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.

McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 142 EV (no change since Monday).

McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, North Dakota. Total: 21 EV (+0).

Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).

Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).

Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (+0).

McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is up 25 and is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN for McCain, NC, MO, and FL for Obama), they're at 174 and 364. Still.

From now on, I'm shopping at Lowes

We have a beautiful new Lowe's home center down the road from us, and perfect timing. Home Depot has a new celebrity spokesman:

JOE THE PLUMBER.

I shan't darken their door again.

All the (ya)Whos down in (Ya)Whoville

Just one more thought on the ADD campaign post below.

If you saw the footage of Caribou Barbie when she started her asinine attack on Rashid Khalidi, you noticed the crowd of mouthbreathers begin to boo when she mentioned his name. They booed an Arabic name (something tells me the Palin crowds don't read a lot of scholarly journals).

Is it a coincidence that the two targets of wingnut wrath are academicians? This is Richard Hofstadter, noted American historian from a generation ago, writing about anti-intellectualism all over again. Down with thought, down with free expression, from the same people who brought you "down with science."

Let us revel in our collective ignorance.

You betcha.

Kudos to Doc Magoo

Just a quick tip of the cap to the good doc for keeping our little coffee klatch going when I dropped the ball. Although when I run for high office, I will deny knowing him.

Scenario?

Friend of the program jimbow8 brings up this potential scenario with regards to the soon-to-be-doomed Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens.

What if Sarah Palin announced that if Stevens were to win the election and then leave office (either via removal or resignation), she'd nominate herself to fill the slot - could she convince a majority of Alaskans to vote for Stevens, since each vote would implicitly be a vote for her?

Is there enough time before the election for that message to get out?

How big of an internal explosion would there be in the GOP since doing this would essentially be pulling herself from the VP slot in McCain's campaign?

It's totally screwed up, but I can almost see it happening. Stevens is doomed in that race, and after the election, Bible Spice won't get a chance to replace him in office - Mark Begich will be on his way.

Thoughts?

The ADD Campaign

[Disclaimer: When I mention Attention Deficit Disorder, I know of whence I speak!]

We are witnessing the ADD presidential campaign, or perhaps at least the Slogan Deficit Disorder camp. The old joke about "How many kids with ADD does it take to change a light bulb?" and the answer, "Let's ride bikes!" certainly applies to this pathetic excuse of an organization.

More than a century and a half ago, an Illinois politician described a flailing president as being "in no wise, satisfied with his own positions. First he takes up one, and in attempting to argue us into it, he argues himself out of it; then seizes another, and goes through the same process; and then, confused at being able to think of nothing new, he snatches up the old one again, which he has some time before cast off. His mind, tasked beyond it's power, is running hither and thither, like some tortured creature, on a burning surface, finding no position, on which it can settle down, and be at ease." That is indeed the McCain campaign.

He has never enunciated any positive vision for America, or made a case as to why we should trust him to lead. Despite his pledges to the contrary, he has been nothing but negative, but he has shifted the targets of his bile as often as Lincoln's "tortured creature on a burning surface."

Let me back up a minute though. It took the candidate quite a while to gin up the slime. For weeks after all but clinching the GOP nomination, McCain disappeared from the landscape. No organization, no boots on the ground, no message. He resurfaces, and his tepid campaign stresses "experience." Then, after making perhaps the most disastrous and ridiculous vice-presidential choice in recent history, he effectively tossed away the "experience" argument, because no one could credibly argue that point when sharing a ticket with such an incompetent dullard.

OK, scrambling, scrambling, where do we go now. Let's try...Rev. Wright! The man goes to..church! Oh wait.

How about AYERS! Look, terrorist, see? Terrorist! Obama knows a ... guy! Oh wait.

That didn't stick, let's ride bikes! Where does the tortured creature land next? ACORN! VOTER FRAUD!

Of course, no one with a functioning cortex believes the "voter fraud" nonsense. Even if desperate poor people falsified forms to meet quotas to keep a minimum wage job, NONE of those people will ACTUALLY VOTE. ACORN! ACORN! Oh wait, that's not working, so where now, where now...

TAXES! Obama will TAX you! He'll take the bread from your children's mouths. Oh damn, facts, that won't work. Now where?

Hey look, Joe the Plumber! Socialism! Joe the Plumber! Socialism! Wait, you mean he's not a plumber? He's just a douchebag Republican plant? Really? And progressive income tax isn't socialist? Damn, now where do I go?

Cue Caribou Barbie. Let's see, what can I attack? We're out of stuff, let's circle back to...he knows a GUY! (Note from post below. If you depend on the support of yahoos, DO NOT put the yahoos on TV!)

The guy? Rashid Khalidi, an outstanding scholar who (gasp!) disagrees with U.S. policy on the Israeli-Palestinian question. Oh the humanity! And what is really shocking is that...they both TAUGHT together at one of America's greatest universities and (horrors) Obama went to a GOING AWAY PARTY when that evil person went to teach at ANOTHER of America's great universities.

Let's ride bikes.

Five days out

Not much movement in the polls, again, but a little, with a slight trend within groupings towards McCain (of the 17 states within 10 points, using 538, 14 trended towards McCain since Monday, 3 towards Obama, with an average change of 0.4 towards McCain). No states changed categories, although Colorado and Virginia are edging a bit towards Obama likely.

Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.

McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 142 EV (no change since Monday).

McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, North Dakota. Total: 21 EV (+0).

Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).

Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).

Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (+0).

McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is up 25 and is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN for McCain, NC, MO, and FL for Obama), they're at 174 and 364. Still.

Extra, extra, DON'T read all about it!

With regard to endorsements--The INDIANAPOLIS STAR is not endorsing a candidate this year because the editorial board is DEADLOCKED. Wow, if you're a Republican and you don't have the Pulliam paper (the late "old man" of the Star, Eugene Pulliam, was the largest individual donor to my undergraduate school, friend of Barry Goldwater and Dan Quayle's grandfather), you're in it deep!

I may be reading too much into this

(CNN) — Presidential candidate John McCain denied Wednesday that race will determine the outcome of next week's election pitting him against Barack Obama, who hopes to become the country's first black president.

"Look, there's racism in America — we all know that," the Republican hopeful told CNN's "Larry King Live" in a taped interview set to air Wednesday evening.

"But I am totally convinced that 99 and forty-four-one-hundredths percent of Americans are going to make the decision based on who is best to lead this country," he continued.

Isn't that how pure Ivory soap is? Pure white Ivory soap.
Just seems like an unfortunate choice there, John Boy.

Everyone just remember

h/t Bartcop and http://www.cafepress.com/obamagotthis

I want to rock and roll all night, and party every day

I have often marveled at the unholy coalition that has made up the post-1980 Republican party. You have the oddest combination of mouth-breathing yahoos who want Jesus to stop boys from kissing voting to support the agendas of CEOs and hedge fund managers who would not allow their "base" within high-powered rifle range of their gated compounds. The GOP leaders, whose kids don't care about "school choice" because their kids went to Andover, who didn't worry about guns because they had private security and had Skull and Bones friends who could take care of their daughters' reproductive "inconveniences," would happily throw chunks of red meat to the trailer dwellers on social issues because it cost them nothing, and the "base" would happily vote against their own self-interests. It was indeed a very curious thing.

I am wondering, though, if this 2008 campaign might put a stake in that monster's heart. We have the perfect storm of the Wall Street meltdown and bailout dividing the base from the financial and corporate community, while Sarah Palin and her genetic mutation rallies shows the GOP establishment that the yahoos are REALLY dangerous (memo to those who count on the support of mouthbreathers--DO NOT stage events where the mouthbreathers are on TV!)

Might this be the end of the unholy GOP alliance?

Tick, tick, tick

Six days and change left. Since I'm working as an election judge again (which may be a stupid idea), I go into a political media-free zone as of 5 am on Tuesday. A mere 138 hours and 16 minutes from now. I may even make it.

Six days out

Just a quick update - today is insane around here. Not much movement in the polls, again, but a little.

Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.

McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 142 EV (-10).

McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, North Dakota. Total: 21 EV (+13).

Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+25).

Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (unchanged).

Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (-28).

McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is up 25 and is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN for McCain, NC, MO, and FL for Obama), they're at 174 and 364. Still.

Speaking of Stats

Joe Lieberman needs a miracle. He made a deal with the devil and retained his senate seat in 2006, despite losing in the Connecticut Democratic primary. He went 3rd party, and took all of the GOP vote plus all of the socially conservative Dem votes, squeaking out a victory over his primary vanquisher, Ned Lamont. But Joe had a problem - he really had no place in the rethugs universe, and had he gone over to the dark side, he had no chance at any kind of plum committee chair gig. SOOOOOO, he went back to the Dems and promised to caucus with them in exchange for the chairmanship of the Homeland Security/Governmental Affairs committee. He got his wish, the Dems controlled the senate, and everyone kept their powder dry for the '08 election cycle.

This is where Joe made his SECOND deal with the devil... Understand that Lieberman despises Barack Obama with an undisguised passion. At a national level, Obama is everything Joe isn't: articulate, telegenic, transformational, substantive, and above all else - ELECTABLE. At this point the general election was up-in-the-air. Joe perceived that national security and other hawkish concerns would be the tipping point. This was his strong suit - the reason that Kerry had tabbed him to be his VP 4 years earlier. If this election came down to the nubs, the people would side with the warrior or the orator. He went "all-in" with Satan and endorsed McCain, agreeing to speak at the rethugs' convention in Minneapolis. Since then he has been a reliable "prop" in Florida during McCain's campaign stops there. Joe knew that if his buddy got elected, a mere chairmanship wasn't in his future. Joe was looking at the Homeland Security post or maybe even Defense Secretary...

It's funny how reality has a way of sinking in at the most inopportune times. Since Joe made that fateful decision, the economy has gone down the toilet, the wizened warrior tack has failed to gain any traction with independent voters, and the rethugs prospects in the next congress look worse than bleak -- but all is not lost for Joe the Turncoat!! All he needs is the aforementioned miracle...
Here is where things stand today: The Dems control 49 seats, the rethugs control 49 seats and the two "independents" [Lieberman and Sanders (I-VT)] caucus with the Dems, and while Sanders has absolutely no interest in working with the dark side of the force, Joe has made his bed with the rethugs. So how does he keep his gig? He keeps his gig by the Dems gaining EXACTLY 9 senate seats - turning him into the "Filibuster-buster." Is it possible? As Sarah Palin would say, "You betcha."

These current GOP seats are considered Dem locks this cycle (all stats h/t to 538):
Virginia (Warner wins)
New Mexico (T. Udall)
Colorado (M. Udall)

Now we're at 54 total seats (including Joe the Turncoat)

Add in these "all-but-assured" pickups:
New Hampshire (Shaheen)
Alaska (Begich)
Oregon (Merkley)

And we get to 57. Now if all goes well, and these leaners fall the right way:
Minnesota (Franken)
North Carolina (Hagan)

we sit at the magical "59" and all Joe would need is ONE of these to fall into the Dem column:
Georgia [Chambliss (slimeball rethug) vs. Martin];
Kentucky [ McConnell (fearless leader of senate rethugs) vs. Lunsford]
Mississippi [Wicker (unabashed rethug) vs. Musgrove].

Nate Silver at 538 puts the chances of a 60 seat majority at 1 in 3. These are far better odds than Joe the Turncoat deserves. It would be the only thing that could put a damper on a Grant Park celebration. So here's hoping against hope that all of the dominoes fall, and the Democrats take 2 of those 3 longshot seats. I can think of no better fate for Joe Lieberman than to be unceremoniously drummed out of his pretty office and his cushy chairmanship. Joe needs to retire in the wilderness, tearing out his eyes like Lear.

Damn, elections are hard on stats junkies

Here's yet another way of looking at the data.

I've put together the polling data (using 538's projections), for basically every Tuesday since 9/9 (I left the data for 10/21 at work). I the grouped the 7 sets of data in the following categories:

1. McCain up by 5.0 or more in every week: Oklahoma, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Alabama, Nebraska (there is some intrigue with how Nebraska splits its congressional districts, but I'm ignoring that for now), Tennessee, Alaska, Kentucky, Kansas, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, Louisiana, South Dakota, Mississippi, and Arizona. 137 EV (None of these have ever been closer than 7.5)
   
   
2. Obama up by 5.0 or more in every week: DC, Maryland, Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Illinois, Rhode Island, Delaware, Connecticut, California, Washington, New Jersey, Maine, Iowa. 190 EV (None of these have been closer than 8.8, except in the 9/16 poll, when 4 states were - that week was the nadir of Obama's polling)
   
   
3. McCain up every week, but sometimes closer than 5.0: West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, and Georgia. 26 EV (These are all between 4.2 and 8.6 right now, with Montana and Georgia less than 5.0.)
   
   
4. Obama up every week, but sometimes closer than 5.0: Oregon, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. 74 EV (All but the last 2 are above 10.0. If I dropped the 9/16 data, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Minnesota would move into the upper category.)
   
   
5. The lead has switched at one point or another (the real tossups): Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana. 111 EV

The total in the two McCain categories is 163, in the two Obama categories it's 264. None of the states in the Obama categories have been closer than 6 points since September. For McCain to win, he has to do the following:

• Defend all of his states, especially Georgia and Montana, both of which are closer than every Obama state and Virginia and Colorado.

And


• Win every tossup state. If he loses Nevada only, the election would be a tie, and it would go to the House of Representatives, where most are projecting an Obama win.

Or


• He's got to steal something from Obama, and there's nothing seriously in play.

If Obama takes Virginia or Colorado, both of which are leaning in his direction, McCain's got to steal something substantial, which is even harder (we're back to PA).

Election Update, 10/28

As suggested by Carlos, I looked at RealClearPolitics in combination with fivethirtyeight and electoral-vote in putting together today's update. RCP is known to have a conservative bent, based on the polls they'll use in compiling their averages. They're also moderately annoying, because they don't compile data for every race and don't put together averages for a handful of races, which, admittedly, aren't in question, but it's a completeness issue.

Well, RCP has no effect on how I'm ranking the states. The only movement from yesterday is Ohio going from Tossup to Obama Likely. We're still looking at basically the same map as yesterday, with Indiana playing the real toss-up and maybe edging toward McCain, but only slightly. It's still Obama 364 (or 375) and McCain 174 (or 163).

THAT sounds like a winner

I just heard a senior GOP operative talk about their strategy during the last week. The campaign has been crippled by an absolute failure to define the candidate and any coherent message, lurching from gutter attacks to bizarre stunts (the campaign "suspension," for example). Now, with his last chance to say why John McCain should be president, this week, the campaign will focus on....

Jeremiah Wright.

Yup. They are going after a minister, to play the race game just after some skinheads were planning a racist massacre. That sounds like a winner.

Michael Dukakis is quite excited to turn over the traveling trophy for the Worst Recent Presidential Campaign.

A brief aside

It is 44 degrees and raining in Philadelphia. Here, in Chicago, where our World Series dreams were shattered, it is 38 degrees.

Baseball has destroyed its crown jewel.

Games end at 2AM, they are played in frigid conditions with howling winds and driving rain.

It is a pipe dream of course, but Commissioner Selig please. Shorten the season. Play regular-season doubleheaders. Play baseball during baseball season.

Don't go away mad, Senator Stevens, just go away

Will they rename the Ted Stevens International Airport in Anchorage?

CNN says he's guilty on all counts.

The Buzz

"What I'm talking about is-- Wait, what am I talking about?
- The buzz.
- The buzz. And the chicks, the whatever...is an offshoot of the buzz." - Almost Famous

Last week here at the Thinker was our best week yet in terms of unique visitors (523), surpassing even the halcyon days of the 06 election. Thanks to those who wander by to observe our babble and especially to those of you who comment and make us feel like there's some point to this beyond a little bit of navel-gazing.

Poll update, 10/27

This last week or so, I'm going to post daily updates, just so that we can see any movement quickly.

Movement since last week: basically none. Georgia moves from McCain win to McCain likely, and North Dakota moves from Tossup to McCain likely.

In the tossup group, Indiana is now slightly on Obama's side, which would give Obama 375 and McCain 163, slightly better than last week.

Just to demonstrate how stable the race is, using 538.com's model, since 10/7, no state has flipped in either direction. The average poll has moved 0.5 pts (the median is 0.6) in Obama's direction. McCain has thrown the kitchen sink at him, and there's basically been no movement in 3 weeks.

Alaska’s Largest Newspaper Endorses Obama: Priceless!

Take it from those who know Sarah Palin the best. The Anchorage Daily News, Alaska’s largest newspaper, has endorsed Barack Obama for president. The newspaper minced no words in declaring that Sarah Palin lacks the readiness to be president, should it become necessary:

[F]ew who have worked closely with the governor would argue she is truly ready to assume command of the most important, powerful nation on earth. To step in and juggle the demands of an economic meltdown, two deadly wars and a deteriorating climate crisis would stretch the governor beyond her range. Like picking Sen. McCain for president, putting her one 72-year-old heartbeat from the leadership of the free world is just too risky at this time.

Noting that Sen. John McCain is “the wrong choice for president at this critical time for our nation,” the newspaper said Sen. Barack Obama “brings far more promise to the office. In a time of grave economic crisis, he displays thoughtful analysis, enlists wise counsel and operates with a cool, steady hand.”

Of the two candidates, Sen. Obama better understands the mortgage meltdown's root causes and has the judgment and intelligence to shape a solution, as well as the leadership to rally the country behind it. It is easy to look at Sen. Obama and see a return to the smart, bipartisan economic policies of the last Democratic administration in Washington, which left the country with the momentum of growth and a budget surplus that President George Bush has squandered.

Read the full text here. It’s a ringing endorsement from our friends to the North.