A little movement today (disregard the noise from the outlying problematic Zogby poll), with a slight trend within groupings towards Obama today (of the 17 states within 10 points, using 538, 2 trended towards McCain since yesterday, 13 towards Obama, and 2 had no change, with an average change of 0.3 towards Obama). We're playing in statistical noise here, folks. The only state that changed categories was...Arizona, moving from McCain win to McCain likely.
Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.
McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 132 EV (-10 since yesterday).
McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, Arizona, North Dakota. Total: 31 EV (+10).
Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).
Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).
Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (+0).
McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN and MO for McCain, NC and FL for Obama), they're at 185 and 353. Missouri might be edging towards McCain (although I still think they'll come through), but that's still a blowout.
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