Not much movement in the polls, again, but a little, with a slight trend within groupings towards Obama today (of the 19 states within 10 points, using 538, 4 trended towards McCain since Monday, 12 towards Obama, and 3 had no change, with an average change of 0.2 towards Obama). We're playing in statistical noise here, folks. No states changed categories.
Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.
McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 142 EV (no change since Monday).
McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, North Dakota. Total: 21 EV (+0).
Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).
Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).
Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (+0).
McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is up 25 and is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN for McCain, NC, MO, and FL for Obama), they're at 174 and 364. Still.
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