Saturday, November 01, 2008
Condolences from The Thinker
To one of the best Senators we've got right now, Illinois' own Dick Durbin. He's going to win an easy re-election Tuesday, but I'm sure that won't come close to making up for the loss of his daughter, Christine, at the age of 40 due to a congenital heart condition. I've seen Senator Durbin speak a couple of times, and written him a bunch, and his passion about issues that really matter is clearly evident in the things he does. I'm a new parent, and I can't imagine how hard that's got to be for him. I hope he and his family come through this and remember the best of the one they've lost.
Why hasn’t Sarah Palin released her medical records?
Sens. Obama, and McCain released their medical records back in May, before early voting took off across the nation. Joe Biden’s medical records were released more than two weeks ago.
Considering that John McCain, at 72, would be the oldest person in history to be president, has had two episodes of melanoma cancer, was a two-pack a day smoker for many years, and has suffered physically and psychologically as a POW, the disclosure of Sarah Palin’s medical records becomes all the more urgent.
WITH THREE DAYS TO GO BEFORE THE ELECTION, WHY HASN’T SARAH PALIN RELEASED HER MEDICAL RECORDS?
Two weeks ago, Palin gave NBC’s Brian Williams this evasive nonanswer:
Note the "if". Two weeks later, with three days to go, still no records.
What does Palin have to hide? If she’s “healthy” and “happy” and never “seriously ill or hurt,” why not release the records? And where’s the media scrutiny in all this?
Incidentally, being “happy” isn’t a medical condition, unless Palin has a history of depression, in which case it would be very relevant. In 1972, when it was disclosed that George McGovern’s vice presidential choice, Thomas Eagleton, had undergone electric shock therapy, he was forced out of the ticket even after McGovern said he was “1,000 percent” behind Eagleton.
It was this episode, and other later revealed facts about presidential candidates’ medical issues, which prompted a greater scrutiny and a bipartisan agreement to make such information public. Barracuda Barbie should not be held to a different standard. The public has a right to know. Especially this year, with a 72 year-old candidate whose health is a real concern.
Considering that John McCain, at 72, would be the oldest person in history to be president, has had two episodes of melanoma cancer, was a two-pack a day smoker for many years, and has suffered physically and psychologically as a POW, the disclosure of Sarah Palin’s medical records becomes all the more urgent.
WITH THREE DAYS TO GO BEFORE THE ELECTION, WHY HASN’T SARAH PALIN RELEASED HER MEDICAL RECORDS?
Two weeks ago, Palin gave NBC’s Brian Williams this evasive nonanswer:
"The medical records, so be it. If that will allow some curiosity seekers perhaps to have one more thing that they either check the box off that they can find something to criticize or to rest them assured over. I'm healthy, happy, I've had five kids, that's going to be in the medical records. Never seriously ill or hurt, you'll see that in the medical records if they're released."
Note the "if". Two weeks later, with three days to go, still no records.
What does Palin have to hide? If she’s “healthy” and “happy” and never “seriously ill or hurt,” why not release the records? And where’s the media scrutiny in all this?
Incidentally, being “happy” isn’t a medical condition, unless Palin has a history of depression, in which case it would be very relevant. In 1972, when it was disclosed that George McGovern’s vice presidential choice, Thomas Eagleton, had undergone electric shock therapy, he was forced out of the ticket even after McGovern said he was “1,000 percent” behind Eagleton.
It was this episode, and other later revealed facts about presidential candidates’ medical issues, which prompted a greater scrutiny and a bipartisan agreement to make such information public. Barracuda Barbie should not be held to a different standard. The public has a right to know. Especially this year, with a 72 year-old candidate whose health is a real concern.
And the number of the counting shall be three
A little movement today (disregard the noise from the outlying problematic Zogby poll), with a slight trend within groupings towards Obama today (of the 17 states within 10 points, using 538, 2 trended towards McCain since yesterday, 13 towards Obama, and 2 had no change, with an average change of 0.3 towards Obama). We're playing in statistical noise here, folks. The only state that changed categories was...Arizona, moving from McCain win to McCain likely.
Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.
McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 132 EV (-10 since yesterday).
McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, Arizona, North Dakota. Total: 31 EV (+10).
Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).
Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).
Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (+0).
McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN and MO for McCain, NC and FL for Obama), they're at 185 and 353. Missouri might be edging towards McCain (although I still think they'll come through), but that's still a blowout.
Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.
McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 132 EV (-10 since yesterday).
McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, Arizona, North Dakota. Total: 31 EV (+10).
Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).
Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).
Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (+0).
McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN and MO for McCain, NC and FL for Obama), they're at 185 and 353. Missouri might be edging towards McCain (although I still think they'll come through), but that's still a blowout.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Oh, fer crying out loud
“If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations,” Palin told host Chris Plante, “then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.”*head explodes*
h/t Balloon Juice, from ABC News
Prediction
At work, they've got a contest to see who can predict the results of the election, and the entries are due today.
Short and sweet: since the dynamics of the election haven't changed in weeks, I'm going to run with the stability that my analyses have predicted, for good or for ill.
Obama 364
McCain 174
Obama will take 51.8% of the popular vote, McCain 46.7%, and third-party candidates 1.5%.
Short and sweet: since the dynamics of the election haven't changed in weeks, I'm going to run with the stability that my analyses have predicted, for good or for ill.
Obama 364
McCain 174
Obama will take 51.8% of the popular vote, McCain 46.7%, and third-party candidates 1.5%.
Four! More! Days!
Not much movement in the polls, again, but a little, with a slight trend within groupings towards Obama today (of the 19 states within 10 points, using 538, 4 trended towards McCain since Monday, 12 towards Obama, and 3 had no change, with an average change of 0.2 towards Obama). We're playing in statistical noise here, folks. No states changed categories.
Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.
McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 142 EV (no change since Monday).
McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, North Dakota. Total: 21 EV (+0).
Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).
Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).
Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (+0).
McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is up 25 and is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN for McCain, NC, MO, and FL for Obama), they're at 174 and 364. Still.
Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.
McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 142 EV (no change since Monday).
McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, North Dakota. Total: 21 EV (+0).
Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).
Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).
Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (+0).
McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is up 25 and is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN for McCain, NC, MO, and FL for Obama), they're at 174 and 364. Still.
From now on, I'm shopping at Lowes
We have a beautiful new Lowe's home center down the road from us, and perfect timing. Home Depot has a new celebrity spokesman:
JOE THE PLUMBER.
I shan't darken their door again.
JOE THE PLUMBER.
I shan't darken their door again.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
All the (ya)Whos down in (Ya)Whoville
Just one more thought on the ADD campaign post below.
If you saw the footage of Caribou Barbie when she started her asinine attack on Rashid Khalidi, you noticed the crowd of mouthbreathers begin to boo when she mentioned his name. They booed an Arabic name (something tells me the Palin crowds don't read a lot of scholarly journals).
Is it a coincidence that the two targets of wingnut wrath are academicians? This is Richard Hofstadter, noted American historian from a generation ago, writing about anti-intellectualism all over again. Down with thought, down with free expression, from the same people who brought you "down with science."
Let us revel in our collective ignorance.
You betcha.
If you saw the footage of Caribou Barbie when she started her asinine attack on Rashid Khalidi, you noticed the crowd of mouthbreathers begin to boo when she mentioned his name. They booed an Arabic name (something tells me the Palin crowds don't read a lot of scholarly journals).
Is it a coincidence that the two targets of wingnut wrath are academicians? This is Richard Hofstadter, noted American historian from a generation ago, writing about anti-intellectualism all over again. Down with thought, down with free expression, from the same people who brought you "down with science."
Let us revel in our collective ignorance.
You betcha.
Kudos to Doc Magoo
Just a quick tip of the cap to the good doc for keeping our little coffee klatch going when I dropped the ball. Although when I run for high office, I will deny knowing him.
Scenario?
Friend of the program jimbow8 brings up this potential scenario with regards to the soon-to-be-doomed Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens.
What if Sarah Palin announced that if Stevens were to win the election and then leave office (either via removal or resignation), she'd nominate herself to fill the slot - could she convince a majority of Alaskans to vote for Stevens, since each vote would implicitly be a vote for her?
Is there enough time before the election for that message to get out?
How big of an internal explosion would there be in the GOP since doing this would essentially be pulling herself from the VP slot in McCain's campaign?
It's totally screwed up, but I can almost see it happening. Stevens is doomed in that race, and after the election, Bible Spice won't get a chance to replace him in office - Mark Begich will be on his way.
Thoughts?
What if Sarah Palin announced that if Stevens were to win the election and then leave office (either via removal or resignation), she'd nominate herself to fill the slot - could she convince a majority of Alaskans to vote for Stevens, since each vote would implicitly be a vote for her?
Is there enough time before the election for that message to get out?
How big of an internal explosion would there be in the GOP since doing this would essentially be pulling herself from the VP slot in McCain's campaign?
It's totally screwed up, but I can almost see it happening. Stevens is doomed in that race, and after the election, Bible Spice won't get a chance to replace him in office - Mark Begich will be on his way.
Thoughts?
The ADD Campaign
[Disclaimer: When I mention Attention Deficit Disorder, I know of whence I speak!]
We are witnessing the ADD presidential campaign, or perhaps at least the Slogan Deficit Disorder camp. The old joke about "How many kids with ADD does it take to change a light bulb?" and the answer, "Let's ride bikes!" certainly applies to this pathetic excuse of an organization.
More than a century and a half ago, an Illinois politician described a flailing president as being "in no wise, satisfied with his own positions. First he takes up one, and in attempting to argue us into it, he argues himself out of it; then seizes another, and goes through the same process; and then, confused at being able to think of nothing new, he snatches up the old one again, which he has some time before cast off. His mind, tasked beyond it's power, is running hither and thither, like some tortured creature, on a burning surface, finding no position, on which it can settle down, and be at ease." That is indeed the McCain campaign.
He has never enunciated any positive vision for America, or made a case as to why we should trust him to lead. Despite his pledges to the contrary, he has been nothing but negative, but he has shifted the targets of his bile as often as Lincoln's "tortured creature on a burning surface."
Let me back up a minute though. It took the candidate quite a while to gin up the slime. For weeks after all but clinching the GOP nomination, McCain disappeared from the landscape. No organization, no boots on the ground, no message. He resurfaces, and his tepid campaign stresses "experience." Then, after making perhaps the most disastrous and ridiculous vice-presidential choice in recent history, he effectively tossed away the "experience" argument, because no one could credibly argue that point when sharing a ticket with such an incompetent dullard.
OK, scrambling, scrambling, where do we go now. Let's try...Rev. Wright! The man goes to..church! Oh wait.
How about AYERS! Look, terrorist, see? Terrorist! Obama knows a ... guy! Oh wait.
That didn't stick, let's ride bikes! Where does the tortured creature land next? ACORN! VOTER FRAUD!
Of course, no one with a functioning cortex believes the "voter fraud" nonsense. Even if desperate poor people falsified forms to meet quotas to keep a minimum wage job, NONE of those people will ACTUALLY VOTE. ACORN! ACORN! Oh wait, that's not working, so where now, where now...
TAXES! Obama will TAX you! He'll take the bread from your children's mouths. Oh damn, facts, that won't work. Now where?
Hey look, Joe the Plumber! Socialism! Joe the Plumber! Socialism! Wait, you mean he's not a plumber? He's just a douchebag Republican plant? Really? And progressive income tax isn't socialist? Damn, now where do I go?
Cue Caribou Barbie. Let's see, what can I attack? We're out of stuff, let's circle back to...he knows a GUY! (Note from post below. If you depend on the support of yahoos, DO NOT put the yahoos on TV!)
The guy? Rashid Khalidi, an outstanding scholar who (gasp!) disagrees with U.S. policy on the Israeli-Palestinian question. Oh the humanity! And what is really shocking is that...they both TAUGHT together at one of America's greatest universities and (horrors) Obama went to a GOING AWAY PARTY when that evil person went to teach at ANOTHER of America's great universities.
Let's ride bikes.
We are witnessing the ADD presidential campaign, or perhaps at least the Slogan Deficit Disorder camp. The old joke about "How many kids with ADD does it take to change a light bulb?" and the answer, "Let's ride bikes!" certainly applies to this pathetic excuse of an organization.
More than a century and a half ago, an Illinois politician described a flailing president as being "in no wise, satisfied with his own positions. First he takes up one, and in attempting to argue us into it, he argues himself out of it; then seizes another, and goes through the same process; and then, confused at being able to think of nothing new, he snatches up the old one again, which he has some time before cast off. His mind, tasked beyond it's power, is running hither and thither, like some tortured creature, on a burning surface, finding no position, on which it can settle down, and be at ease." That is indeed the McCain campaign.
He has never enunciated any positive vision for America, or made a case as to why we should trust him to lead. Despite his pledges to the contrary, he has been nothing but negative, but he has shifted the targets of his bile as often as Lincoln's "tortured creature on a burning surface."
Let me back up a minute though. It took the candidate quite a while to gin up the slime. For weeks after all but clinching the GOP nomination, McCain disappeared from the landscape. No organization, no boots on the ground, no message. He resurfaces, and his tepid campaign stresses "experience." Then, after making perhaps the most disastrous and ridiculous vice-presidential choice in recent history, he effectively tossed away the "experience" argument, because no one could credibly argue that point when sharing a ticket with such an incompetent dullard.
OK, scrambling, scrambling, where do we go now. Let's try...Rev. Wright! The man goes to..church! Oh wait.
How about AYERS! Look, terrorist, see? Terrorist! Obama knows a ... guy! Oh wait.
That didn't stick, let's ride bikes! Where does the tortured creature land next? ACORN! VOTER FRAUD!
Of course, no one with a functioning cortex believes the "voter fraud" nonsense. Even if desperate poor people falsified forms to meet quotas to keep a minimum wage job, NONE of those people will ACTUALLY VOTE. ACORN! ACORN! Oh wait, that's not working, so where now, where now...
TAXES! Obama will TAX you! He'll take the bread from your children's mouths. Oh damn, facts, that won't work. Now where?
Hey look, Joe the Plumber! Socialism! Joe the Plumber! Socialism! Wait, you mean he's not a plumber? He's just a douchebag Republican plant? Really? And progressive income tax isn't socialist? Damn, now where do I go?
Cue Caribou Barbie. Let's see, what can I attack? We're out of stuff, let's circle back to...he knows a GUY! (Note from post below. If you depend on the support of yahoos, DO NOT put the yahoos on TV!)
The guy? Rashid Khalidi, an outstanding scholar who (gasp!) disagrees with U.S. policy on the Israeli-Palestinian question. Oh the humanity! And what is really shocking is that...they both TAUGHT together at one of America's greatest universities and (horrors) Obama went to a GOING AWAY PARTY when that evil person went to teach at ANOTHER of America's great universities.
Let's ride bikes.
Five days out
Not much movement in the polls, again, but a little, with a slight trend within groupings towards McCain (of the 17 states within 10 points, using 538, 14 trended towards McCain since Monday, 3 towards Obama, with an average change of 0.4 towards McCain). No states changed categories, although Colorado and Virginia are edging a bit towards Obama likely.
Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.
McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 142 EV (no change since Monday).
McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, North Dakota. Total: 21 EV (+0).
Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).
Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).
Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (+0).
McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is up 25 and is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN for McCain, NC, MO, and FL for Obama), they're at 174 and 364. Still.
Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.
McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 142 EV (no change since Monday).
McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, North Dakota. Total: 21 EV (+0).
Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+0).
Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (+0).
Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (+0).
McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is up 25 and is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN for McCain, NC, MO, and FL for Obama), they're at 174 and 364. Still.
Extra, extra, DON'T read all about it!
With regard to endorsements--The INDIANAPOLIS STAR is not endorsing a candidate this year because the editorial board is DEADLOCKED. Wow, if you're a Republican and you don't have the Pulliam paper (the late "old man" of the Star, Eugene Pulliam, was the largest individual donor to my undergraduate school, friend of Barry Goldwater and Dan Quayle's grandfather), you're in it deep!
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
I may be reading too much into this
(CNN) — Presidential candidate John McCain denied Wednesday that race will determine the outcome of next week's election pitting him against Barack Obama, who hopes to become the country's first black president.
"Look, there's racism in America — we all know that," the Republican hopeful told CNN's "Larry King Live" in a taped interview set to air Wednesday evening.
"But I am totally convinced that 99 and forty-four-one-hundredths percent of Americans are going to make the decision based on who is best to lead this country," he continued.
Isn't that how pure Ivory soap is? Pure white Ivory soap.
Just seems like an unfortunate choice there, John Boy.
I want to rock and roll all night, and party every day
I have often marveled at the unholy coalition that has made up the post-1980 Republican party. You have the oddest combination of mouth-breathing yahoos who want Jesus to stop boys from kissing voting to support the agendas of CEOs and hedge fund managers who would not allow their "base" within high-powered rifle range of their gated compounds. The GOP leaders, whose kids don't care about "school choice" because their kids went to Andover, who didn't worry about guns because they had private security and had Skull and Bones friends who could take care of their daughters' reproductive "inconveniences," would happily throw chunks of red meat to the trailer dwellers on social issues because it cost them nothing, and the "base" would happily vote against their own self-interests. It was indeed a very curious thing.
I am wondering, though, if this 2008 campaign might put a stake in that monster's heart. We have the perfect storm of the Wall Street meltdown and bailout dividing the base from the financial and corporate community, while Sarah Palin and her genetic mutation rallies shows the GOP establishment that the yahoos are REALLY dangerous (memo to those who count on the support of mouthbreathers--DO NOT stage events where the mouthbreathers are on TV!)
Might this be the end of the unholy GOP alliance?
I am wondering, though, if this 2008 campaign might put a stake in that monster's heart. We have the perfect storm of the Wall Street meltdown and bailout dividing the base from the financial and corporate community, while Sarah Palin and her genetic mutation rallies shows the GOP establishment that the yahoos are REALLY dangerous (memo to those who count on the support of mouthbreathers--DO NOT stage events where the mouthbreathers are on TV!)
Might this be the end of the unholy GOP alliance?
Tick, tick, tick
Six days and change left. Since I'm working as an election judge again (which may be a stupid idea), I go into a political media-free zone as of 5 am on Tuesday. A mere 138 hours and 16 minutes from now. I may even make it.
Six days out
Just a quick update - today is insane around here. Not much movement in the polls, again, but a little.
Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.
McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 142 EV (-10).
McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, North Dakota. Total: 21 EV (+13).
Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+25).
Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (unchanged).
Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (-28).
McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is up 25 and is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN for McCain, NC, MO, and FL for Obama), they're at 174 and 364. Still.
Italicized states have trended (changed categories) towards McCain, bolded towards Obama.
McCain win: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Carolina, Arizona, Texas, South Dakota, West Virginia. Total: 142 EV (-10).
McCain likely: Montana, Georgia, North Dakota. Total: 21 EV (+13).
Obama likely: Ohio, Nevada. Total: 25 EV (+25).
Obama win: DC, Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia. Total: 286 EV (unchanged).
Tossup: Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida. Total: 64 EV (-28).
McCain is still at 163 in his two piles, Obama is up 25 and is at 311. Counting leaners in the tossup category (IN for McCain, NC, MO, and FL for Obama), they're at 174 and 364. Still.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Speaking of Stats
Joe Lieberman needs a miracle. He made a deal with the devil and retained his senate seat in 2006, despite losing in the Connecticut Democratic primary. He went 3rd party, and took all of the GOP vote plus all of the socially conservative Dem votes, squeaking out a victory over his primary vanquisher, Ned Lamont. But Joe had a problem - he really had no place in the rethugs universe, and had he gone over to the dark side, he had no chance at any kind of plum committee chair gig. SOOOOOO, he went back to the Dems and promised to caucus with them in exchange for the chairmanship of the Homeland Security/Governmental Affairs committee. He got his wish, the Dems controlled the senate, and everyone kept their powder dry for the '08 election cycle.
This is where Joe made his SECOND deal with the devil... Understand that Lieberman despises Barack Obama with an undisguised passion. At a national level, Obama is everything Joe isn't: articulate, telegenic, transformational, substantive, and above all else - ELECTABLE. At this point the general election was up-in-the-air. Joe perceived that national security and other hawkish concerns would be the tipping point. This was his strong suit - the reason that Kerry had tabbed him to be his VP 4 years earlier. If this election came down to the nubs, the people would side with the warrior or the orator. He went "all-in" with Satan and endorsed McCain, agreeing to speak at the rethugs' convention in Minneapolis. Since then he has been a reliable "prop" in Florida during McCain's campaign stops there. Joe knew that if his buddy got elected, a mere chairmanship wasn't in his future. Joe was looking at the Homeland Security post or maybe even Defense Secretary...
It's funny how reality has a way of sinking in at the most inopportune times. Since Joe made that fateful decision, the economy has gone down the toilet, the wizened warrior tack has failed to gain any traction with independent voters, and the rethugs prospects in the next congress look worse than bleak -- but all is not lost for Joe the Turncoat!! All he needs is the aforementioned miracle...
Here is where things stand today: The Dems control 49 seats, the rethugs control 49 seats and the two "independents" [Lieberman and Sanders (I-VT)] caucus with the Dems, and while Sanders has absolutely no interest in working with the dark side of the force, Joe has made his bed with the rethugs. So how does he keep his gig? He keeps his gig by the Dems gaining EXACTLY 9 senate seats - turning him into the "Filibuster-buster." Is it possible? As Sarah Palin would say, "You betcha."
These current GOP seats are considered Dem locks this cycle (all stats h/t to 538):
Virginia (Warner wins)
New Mexico (T. Udall)
Colorado (M. Udall)
Now we're at 54 total seats (including Joe the Turncoat)
Add in these "all-but-assured" pickups:
New Hampshire (Shaheen)
Alaska (Begich)
Oregon (Merkley)
And we get to 57. Now if all goes well, and these leaners fall the right way:
Minnesota (Franken)
North Carolina (Hagan)
we sit at the magical "59" and all Joe would need is ONE of these to fall into the Dem column:
Georgia [Chambliss (slimeball rethug) vs. Martin];
Kentucky [ McConnell (fearless leader of senate rethugs) vs. Lunsford]
Mississippi [Wicker (unabashed rethug) vs. Musgrove].
Nate Silver at 538 puts the chances of a 60 seat majority at 1 in 3. These are far better odds than Joe the Turncoat deserves. It would be the only thing that could put a damper on a Grant Park celebration. So here's hoping against hope that all of the dominoes fall, and the Democrats take 2 of those 3 longshot seats. I can think of no better fate for Joe Lieberman than to be unceremoniously drummed out of his pretty office and his cushy chairmanship. Joe needs to retire in the wilderness, tearing out his eyes like Lear.
This is where Joe made his SECOND deal with the devil... Understand that Lieberman despises Barack Obama with an undisguised passion. At a national level, Obama is everything Joe isn't: articulate, telegenic, transformational, substantive, and above all else - ELECTABLE. At this point the general election was up-in-the-air. Joe perceived that national security and other hawkish concerns would be the tipping point. This was his strong suit - the reason that Kerry had tabbed him to be his VP 4 years earlier. If this election came down to the nubs, the people would side with the warrior or the orator. He went "all-in" with Satan and endorsed McCain, agreeing to speak at the rethugs' convention in Minneapolis. Since then he has been a reliable "prop" in Florida during McCain's campaign stops there. Joe knew that if his buddy got elected, a mere chairmanship wasn't in his future. Joe was looking at the Homeland Security post or maybe even Defense Secretary...
It's funny how reality has a way of sinking in at the most inopportune times. Since Joe made that fateful decision, the economy has gone down the toilet, the wizened warrior tack has failed to gain any traction with independent voters, and the rethugs prospects in the next congress look worse than bleak -- but all is not lost for Joe the Turncoat!! All he needs is the aforementioned miracle...
Here is where things stand today: The Dems control 49 seats, the rethugs control 49 seats and the two "independents" [Lieberman and Sanders (I-VT)] caucus with the Dems, and while Sanders has absolutely no interest in working with the dark side of the force, Joe has made his bed with the rethugs. So how does he keep his gig? He keeps his gig by the Dems gaining EXACTLY 9 senate seats - turning him into the "Filibuster-buster." Is it possible? As Sarah Palin would say, "You betcha."
These current GOP seats are considered Dem locks this cycle (all stats h/t to 538):
Virginia (Warner wins)
New Mexico (T. Udall)
Colorado (M. Udall)
Now we're at 54 total seats (including Joe the Turncoat)
Add in these "all-but-assured" pickups:
New Hampshire (Shaheen)
Alaska (Begich)
Oregon (Merkley)
And we get to 57. Now if all goes well, and these leaners fall the right way:
Minnesota (Franken)
North Carolina (Hagan)
we sit at the magical "59" and all Joe would need is ONE of these to fall into the Dem column:
Georgia [Chambliss (slimeball rethug) vs. Martin];
Kentucky [ McConnell (fearless leader of senate rethugs) vs. Lunsford]
Mississippi [Wicker (unabashed rethug) vs. Musgrove].
Nate Silver at 538 puts the chances of a 60 seat majority at 1 in 3. These are far better odds than Joe the Turncoat deserves. It would be the only thing that could put a damper on a Grant Park celebration. So here's hoping against hope that all of the dominoes fall, and the Democrats take 2 of those 3 longshot seats. I can think of no better fate for Joe Lieberman than to be unceremoniously drummed out of his pretty office and his cushy chairmanship. Joe needs to retire in the wilderness, tearing out his eyes like Lear.
Damn, elections are hard on stats junkies
Here's yet another way of looking at the data.
I've put together the polling data (using 538's projections), for basically every Tuesday since 9/9 (I left the data for 10/21 at work). I the grouped the 7 sets of data in the following categories:
The total in the two McCain categories is 163, in the two Obama categories it's 264. None of the states in the Obama categories have been closer than 6 points since September. For McCain to win, he has to do the following:
If Obama takes Virginia or Colorado, both of which are leaning in his direction, McCain's got to steal something substantial, which is even harder (we're back to PA).
I've put together the polling data (using 538's projections), for basically every Tuesday since 9/9 (I left the data for 10/21 at work). I the grouped the 7 sets of data in the following categories:
- McCain up by 5.0 or more in every week: Oklahoma, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Alabama, Nebraska (there is some intrigue with how Nebraska splits its congressional districts, but I'm ignoring that for now), Tennessee, Alaska, Kentucky, Kansas, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, Louisiana, South Dakota, Mississippi, and Arizona. 137 EV (None of these have ever been closer than 7.5)
- Obama up by 5.0 or more in every week: DC, Maryland, Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Illinois, Rhode Island, Delaware, Connecticut, California, Washington, New Jersey, Maine, Iowa. 190 EV (None of these have been closer than 8.8, except in the 9/16 poll, when 4 states were - that week was the nadir of Obama's polling)
- McCain up every week, but sometimes closer than 5.0: West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, and Georgia. 26 EV (These are all between 4.2 and 8.6 right now, with Montana and Georgia less than 5.0.)
- Obama up every week, but sometimes closer than 5.0: Oregon, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. 74 EV (All but the last 2 are above 10.0. If I dropped the 9/16 data, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Minnesota would move into the upper category.)
- The lead has switched at one point or another (the real tossups): Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana. 111 EV
The total in the two McCain categories is 163, in the two Obama categories it's 264. None of the states in the Obama categories have been closer than 6 points since September. For McCain to win, he has to do the following:
- Defend all of his states, especially Georgia and Montana, both of which are closer than every Obama state and Virginia and Colorado.
- Win every tossup state. If he loses Nevada only, the election would be a tie, and it would go to the House of Representatives, where most are projecting an Obama win.
- He's got to steal something from Obama, and there's nothing seriously in play.
And
Or
If Obama takes Virginia or Colorado, both of which are leaning in his direction, McCain's got to steal something substantial, which is even harder (we're back to PA).
Election Update, 10/28
As suggested by Carlos, I looked at RealClearPolitics in combination with fivethirtyeight and electoral-vote in putting together today's update. RCP is known to have a conservative bent, based on the polls they'll use in compiling their averages. They're also moderately annoying, because they don't compile data for every race and don't put together averages for a handful of races, which, admittedly, aren't in question, but it's a completeness issue.
Well, RCP has no effect on how I'm ranking the states. The only movement from yesterday is Ohio going from Tossup to Obama Likely. We're still looking at basically the same map as yesterday, with Indiana playing the real toss-up and maybe edging toward McCain, but only slightly. It's still Obama 364 (or 375) and McCain 174 (or 163).
Well, RCP has no effect on how I'm ranking the states. The only movement from yesterday is Ohio going from Tossup to Obama Likely. We're still looking at basically the same map as yesterday, with Indiana playing the real toss-up and maybe edging toward McCain, but only slightly. It's still Obama 364 (or 375) and McCain 174 (or 163).
THAT sounds like a winner
I just heard a senior GOP operative talk about their strategy during the last week. The campaign has been crippled by an absolute failure to define the candidate and any coherent message, lurching from gutter attacks to bizarre stunts (the campaign "suspension," for example). Now, with his last chance to say why John McCain should be president, this week, the campaign will focus on....
Jeremiah Wright.
Yup. They are going after a minister, to play the race game just after some skinheads were planning a racist massacre. That sounds like a winner.
Michael Dukakis is quite excited to turn over the traveling trophy for the Worst Recent Presidential Campaign.
Jeremiah Wright.
Yup. They are going after a minister, to play the race game just after some skinheads were planning a racist massacre. That sounds like a winner.
Michael Dukakis is quite excited to turn over the traveling trophy for the Worst Recent Presidential Campaign.
Monday, October 27, 2008
A brief aside
It is 44 degrees and raining in Philadelphia. Here, in Chicago, where our World Series dreams were shattered, it is 38 degrees.
Baseball has destroyed its crown jewel.
Games end at 2AM, they are played in frigid conditions with howling winds and driving rain.
It is a pipe dream of course, but Commissioner Selig please. Shorten the season. Play regular-season doubleheaders. Play baseball during baseball season.
Baseball has destroyed its crown jewel.
Games end at 2AM, they are played in frigid conditions with howling winds and driving rain.
It is a pipe dream of course, but Commissioner Selig please. Shorten the season. Play regular-season doubleheaders. Play baseball during baseball season.
Don't go away mad, Senator Stevens, just go away
Will they rename the Ted Stevens International Airport in Anchorage?
CNN says he's guilty on all counts.
CNN says he's guilty on all counts.
The Buzz
"What I'm talking about is-- Wait, what am I talking about?
- The buzz.
- The buzz. And the chicks, the whatever...is an offshoot of the buzz." - Almost Famous
Last week here at the Thinker was our best week yet in terms of unique visitors (523), surpassing even the halcyon days of the 06 election. Thanks to those who wander by to observe our babble and especially to those of you who comment and make us feel like there's some point to this beyond a little bit of navel-gazing.
- The buzz.
- The buzz. And the chicks, the whatever...is an offshoot of the buzz." - Almost Famous
Last week here at the Thinker was our best week yet in terms of unique visitors (523), surpassing even the halcyon days of the 06 election. Thanks to those who wander by to observe our babble and especially to those of you who comment and make us feel like there's some point to this beyond a little bit of navel-gazing.
Poll update, 10/27
This last week or so, I'm going to post daily updates, just so that we can see any movement quickly.
Movement since last week: basically none. Georgia moves from McCain win to McCain likely, and North Dakota moves from Tossup to McCain likely.
In the tossup group, Indiana is now slightly on Obama's side, which would give Obama 375 and McCain 163, slightly better than last week.
Just to demonstrate how stable the race is, using 538.com's model, since 10/7, no state has flipped in either direction. The average poll has moved 0.5 pts (the median is 0.6) in Obama's direction. McCain has thrown the kitchen sink at him, and there's basically been no movement in 3 weeks.
Movement since last week: basically none. Georgia moves from McCain win to McCain likely, and North Dakota moves from Tossup to McCain likely.
In the tossup group, Indiana is now slightly on Obama's side, which would give Obama 375 and McCain 163, slightly better than last week.
Just to demonstrate how stable the race is, using 538.com's model, since 10/7, no state has flipped in either direction. The average poll has moved 0.5 pts (the median is 0.6) in Obama's direction. McCain has thrown the kitchen sink at him, and there's basically been no movement in 3 weeks.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Alaska’s Largest Newspaper Endorses Obama: Priceless!
Take it from those who know Sarah Palin the best. The Anchorage Daily News, Alaska’s largest newspaper, has endorsed Barack Obama for president. The newspaper minced no words in declaring that Sarah Palin lacks the readiness to be president, should it become necessary:
Noting that Sen. John McCain is “the wrong choice for president at this critical time for our nation,” the newspaper said Sen. Barack Obama “brings far more promise to the office. In a time of grave economic crisis, he displays thoughtful analysis, enlists wise counsel and operates with a cool, steady hand.”
Read the full text here. It’s a ringing endorsement from our friends to the North.
[F]ew who have worked closely with the governor would argue she is truly ready to assume command of the most important, powerful nation on earth. To step in and juggle the demands of an economic meltdown, two deadly wars and a deteriorating climate crisis would stretch the governor beyond her range. Like picking Sen. McCain for president, putting her one 72-year-old heartbeat from the leadership of the free world is just too risky at this time.
Noting that Sen. John McCain is “the wrong choice for president at this critical time for our nation,” the newspaper said Sen. Barack Obama “brings far more promise to the office. In a time of grave economic crisis, he displays thoughtful analysis, enlists wise counsel and operates with a cool, steady hand.”
Of the two candidates, Sen. Obama better understands the mortgage meltdown's root causes and has the judgment and intelligence to shape a solution, as well as the leadership to rally the country behind it. It is easy to look at Sen. Obama and see a return to the smart, bipartisan economic policies of the last Democratic administration in Washington, which left the country with the momentum of growth and a budget surplus that President George Bush has squandered.
Read the full text here. It’s a ringing endorsement from our friends to the North.
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