Updated Predictions

On October 20, I posted some predictions for the upcoming election. Nothing dramatic has changed since then, but there has been some movement.

In the Senate, there are 9 seats in play:

New Jersey (D incumbent)
Minnesota (R)
Rhode Island (R)
Montana (R)
Ohio (R)
Tennessee (R)
Missouri (R)
Pennsylvania (R)
Virginia (R)

I'm now predicting that the Democrats will pick up PA, MN, MT, OH, RI, and VA. George Allen has shot himself in the foot one too many times, and there are enough pissed off Democrats in northern VA who will overcome the racist hicks in the south. They'll hold on to NJ. They'll lose CT after Lieberman wins on the backs of GOP votes and switches parties. That gives them 50 seats (which is really a GOP victory, since Uncle Dick will come by to shoot everyone in the face break ties. TN and MO are still possible pickups, but I just don't see the south giving up their hate. Even if they do make the smarter decision, someone like Ford is as conservative as a Democrat will get, and keeping him in the fold will be tough.

I'm still seeing a tidal wave in the House. Too many House members are doing stupid things (there's new stories every day - check out TPM Muckraker for details). The Dems need 15 seats to get a 1 seat majority. As much as Karl Rove is confident about "the" math, the only polls that support his optimism are internal GOP polls, which I trust about as much as internal Dem polls. 30-40 seats.